Options
Hurricane Florence
LaRea
Member, Moderator Posts: 7,547 mod
I know it's still early, but this one has me worried. If she makes Cat 4, she's gonna make life interesting for a lot of people.
A good friend of mine is getting Saturday in the Outer Banks. Wonder how that's gonna play out.
A good friend of mine is getting Saturday in the Outer Banks. Wonder how that's gonna play out.
Comments
Go Steelers!!!
You guy's in the East, beware, Florence is getting stronger.
Well, I know a lot of downtown Annapolis is under water this morning from Gordon. I was on the boat this past weekend, and when I left I put up my "high wind" canvas and raised the boat a little higher than normal on the lift. We'll see how it goes this week if I need to do anything further before the weekend. Definitely looks like a wash out weekend coming up! At least there's good college football on Saturdays now.
Dream 'Inn III -- 2008 400 Express
06 Rinker 270
it's nearing impossible we're going to miss it here- the only question is what side of that thing we'll see... even if it breaks a hard right (which it's not supposed to according to 'experts') we'll get the west side bands from it...
according to just about every model, it's going to be a full frontal- making landfall within 100 miles either north or south of us. if it's a cat2 i'll sit back and watch... a cat3 is about where i start to pack.. a strong 3 or 4 and i'm out of here until it passes- a five? likely not a lot to come back to and i'll likely winter in the U.P. this year...
Our tide this morning is a good three feet above normal, and we're expecting rain all week.
it's never the storm itself- it's the aftermath that bites the big one... clean up is never fun. then again, we've never had (in my experience) a high cat 3 or cat 4 hit us. sustained winds 110mph+ and gusts into the 150mph range is dangerous and a lot of homes will be destroyed. i live about a mile or so from the ocean and less than a 1/4 mile from the ICW- storm surge and flooding is never a problem due to tides pulling everything out every six hours, but..... this one may be different- again, if it's a strong 3 or 4 we're gonna pay a toll.
06 Rinker 270
@212rowboat - I guess you'll have to GTFO.
Cat 4 is what she's looking to be. I think for us in the mid Chesapeake (& you too LaRea), we will have high surge and lots of rain. My current plan is to maybe raise my boat lift a bit more later this week. Right now she is up high enough for about 6 foot surge above normal high tide. But, I can and might raise her a few more feet. I know my marina had about 5-6 feet high surge during Isabel (and those on the lifts were ok).
212row, I think I'd be pulling out and taking as much as I could with me. In another day or two I can only imagine how it will be down there with everyone trying to get out. Good luck buddy!
Dream 'Inn III -- 2008 400 Express
Boat Name: King Kong
"Boat + Water = Fun"
I don't plan on strapping at this point. There are many boats around that will definitely help block the wind. I could tie the cradles to the pilings, but I'll say I know it's been thru 60+ mph winds without issues on the lift. Surge will be our biggest issue.
@LaRea, if I were you, I'd pull due to the storm surge itself. Don't wait too much longer though, or you may be outta luck.
Dream 'Inn III -- 2008 400 Express
we train first responders for a living- military bases.. we do hazmat/wmd, terrorist and natural disasters working with fire, ems, popo and emergency managers. there are a ton of modeling applications out there we use, and a ton of distinct hurricane models we've both made up out of thin air, and some where we used actual past storms for exercising response.
shoving this one through the application rendered some scary results. first off, and most frightening, there is nothing out there to slow it down. when it hits the shelf it will either be a strong 4 or possibly a borderline 5. the shelf will knock it down some, to the low four high three range at best. the 70 miles on either side of dead center that thing will render sustained winds in the 140 range and gusts well upward 180. that path will be absolute destruction. it's supposed to land somewhere just north of Wilmington and south of Jacksonville. Wilmington is 70ish miles south from me, and Jacksonville is 20ish south. it can wobble this way or that, and we'll still be flirting with that 70 mile radius around the dead center eye.
the second most startling thing is the chances of being hit. we've never seen one have a zero probability of miss. that is just crazy. the basis of that is that it may stall- or it may break a hard right, but we're still getting something. the high pressure barrier north and south has made a hallway for this thing, and made it really unlikely it will veer. that same hallway has it tracking directly toward north eastern tennessee and southwestern va, where it will still likely be a tropical storm on Saturday. the other possibility is it stalls straddling the coast, where it sits for as much as two days. that'll bite a big one.
and here is another strange thing about this storm.. when it spun back up this morning, it was a cat3 for all of an hour. one plane passed through and measured cat3 sustained winds, and the very next measured cat4. how quickly it spun up is just plain weird. that basically says the lack of barrier (obstacles) and the warm water (record temps earlier this year and still around 85*) is a battery charger for that thing, disallowing it to spin off some of that energy. that basically means it will only have about 12 miles just prior to the coast to slow down, and it won't a lot. meaning it will be a solid three at a minimum when it strikes, but more likely a four.
there ain't nuthin good about this thing.