Best Of

@TonyG13.....hey Tony, see you and raise you one. I was one of the first guys on the forum to install AGMs in my Rinker and herald their existence. I went to purchase an AGM for my Enclave and the dealer told me it would void my warranty. How is that possible I asked - it's the same size and voltage? Reply , sorry we can't sell you one. I said see you - heading to Costco. Got a call five minutes later - we can sell you one. Got another one for you. have a Ford Mustang called the dealer to make an appointment to have the oil changed. Asked if they had the oil and filters in stock - as we all know what the supply chains are like. So I said you have Mobil Super Synthetic 0W-20 in stock. Dealer replied we can't put that in your car as  your manual calls for 5W-30 or 5W-20 (cold climate). Well, I said that's what I told you 6,000 kilometers ago when you wanted to put the 0W-20 in the Mustang but you said Ford is now putting 0W-20 in my Mustang. My reply - so what you guys are actually doing using whatever you have in stock?  Soooo Tony, these days my BS meter is ringing like a church bell on Sunday. Half the time it seems employees have no idea what they are talking about (unless they have gray hair or no hair) and the other half they just make $hit up!

boatman37 said:

Anyone that tries to catch a top or bottom is flirting with disaster. But to try to catch a falling knife is also risky. And yes I get that it can shoot straight back up when we get these dips but I feel this is different. We have fallen so far over such an extended timeframe that I think we will see a more rounded bottom than a V reversal. Typically sharp drops are followed by sharp reversals back to the upside (V shaped reversal).

That said, I did add very little to my longer term accounts today. If we aren't near bottom now then I think we will drop another 10-20%

Exactly my point. Why try catching a falling knife ... that's burnt WAY too many people. There's a number of points I need to make to address the last few posts made by several individuals.

First is ... you need to have a chart, and know where the various support levels are, and when resistance/support is broken.  If it's falling, you don't know how many of those support levels will be broken ... and you can lose a lot of money, guessing when to buy on the way down.  Perhaps an alternative strategy is to establish the next 5 support zones, and buy in 20% of your capital at a time ... you may not get to support level 5 (lowest) ... so any additional cash is used on the way up, when you have back-check of support, after resistance is hit.

If we are talking long term ... do you guys really see any historical event that completely reverses all the losses to the market top in one capitulation reversal event. NOT a chance ... you will have that v-shaped bottom, there will be buy back, it will cool off, it will back check support (on a reversal) ... and when that support is confirmed ... you buy.  You will probably be buying 15% to 20% from the bottom ... but at least you have a much higher probability the direction is up, not more down.

Perhaps another point is, you need to take control of your trades ... if you have to go through a broker or third party ... it's going to take longer ... then I think you'd rather just have them manage your portfolio. I encourage people to have fast methods of investment, and if you are savvy enough with charts and investment strategies (which isn't that simple actually) ... then direct trades with online platforms is an option.

Remember, the argument here is long term, and I don't see how you cannot apply that same opportunity on the bullish side of a capitulation event.  You may buy 20% higher than the bottom ... but the long term view is that your investment will grow much more from when you enter ... and you effectively could remove the guesswork of how much more correction there could be, if you try buying on the way down (catching a falling knife).