Stock Market

Dream_Inn

Yeah, I finally took some profits on some things I bought more of later last year.  It is finally equalizing back out for my last couple plus years.  I figure some of the stuff I sold will drop back down a bit and then I'll buy it long term again.  Just hard not to take a little profit when it goes up over 30% just since the new year, half of it the last two days.  I've played stupid long enough for some of it keeping as long term.  Yes, some of it kept going up even more, but you never know.  HD & AMAT were most of the lastest stocks I sold, but also sold some NIO and IBM for some profits too.  I plan to get back in all 4 of those if or when they dip back down.

boatman37

Sold 1 of my TSLA call contracts today at 4.50 from 1.27. Still holding the last one and willing to let it expire worthless as it is now a free ride on this trade.

Also, I mentioned about a week ago that we were looking for a 4180 target on ES futures. We broke that by a little today then pulled back and closed below it. My guess is we see some selling the next few days now

MarkB

MarkB said:

Lake_Bum said:

The Fed announces a .25% rate hike, and Crypto explodes.  Doesn't make much sense, but I'll take it!  Pretty tough in this inflation staggered economy, but things are looking up

Well, the narrative that the crypto community is interpreting from this is ... rate hikes are slowing, so the pain is stopping, and the likelihood of a recession is lower. 

Crypto is turning bullish, and they just didn't want the rate increase to be higher than expected, or showing signs of not stopping ... which it didn't. The news was seen as positive (slowing of interest rate increases), which gave the signal to the bullish momentum to continue.

Note that several people I talk to think that BTC will stall at around 30k ... I also support that hypothesis ... but it's all guesswork.

I also recently learned the bullishness came from a likelyhood that the US Debt Ceiling would be increased ... and with that, spending would increase, which would reduce the risk of a recession, and possibly lead to more payout checks that go straight into stocks and crypto.

randy56

And Gold and silver dropped today?

boatman37

boatman37 said:

Sold 1 of my TSLA call contracts today at 4.50 from 1.27. Still holding the last one and willing to let it expire worthless as it is now a free ride on this trade.

Also, I mentioned about a week ago that we were looking for a 4180 target on ES futures. We broke that by a little today then pulled back and closed below it. My guess is we see some selling the next few days now

First downside target I see on /ES futures is 3788.50. 2nd target is 3530.25. In my opinion we take one (or both) of those out before we go higher

J3ff

came out +20,000 on Bed bath and beyond today.. bought somewhere around 2 and was out by 315pm. Also, picked up bbai at the same timeish. 

Too bad this is a stock market GAME. 

Sigh. 

rasbury

20 grand profit? That would be a good day!

J3ff

Crypto coming back?? 

rasbury

J3ff said:

Crypto coming back?? 

No jeff...you said you were up 20,000 on bed and bath stocks....baller!

Lake_Bum

J3ff said:

Crypto coming back?? 

It keeps doing little 3-5% gains, then flatlining.  I took some profits on ETH a couple weeks ago, and bought back in at a discount.  The Bull run is coming soon, unless WWIII happens! 

J3ff

rasbury said:

J3ff said:

Crypto coming back?? 

No jeff...you said you were up 20,000 on bed and bath stocks....baller!

rasbury said:

J3ff said:

Crypto coming back?? 

No jeff...you said you were up 20,000 on bed and bath stocks....baller!

It was a game!!!  (marketwatch.com)

Up 10% on crypto today though!! Learned what a trailing edge stop is .. wow! 

rasbury

I will check that site out! I would love to learn to do some trading but I think unless you have time to really do it, I'd be throwing our money out the window. We have most of our investments through Morgan Stanley but also talking to fisher investments...anyone have an opinion on either of these companies?

J3ff

I'm dipping my toes into day trading. With the assistance of tradingview.com and a couple neural network indicators that you can add to those charts. Coupled with the trailing edge stop, as well as the trailing edge buy... This would seem too easy in a bull market to make money. I understand that right now we are not in one or some people think we don't know which one we are in. Right now my goal is to just learn exactly what to do and when to do it, and the neural network indicators absolutely tell you when conditions are favorable for a stock to bump up.

MarkB

Lake_Bum said:

J3ff said:

Crypto coming back?? 

It keeps doing little 3-5% gains, then flatlining.  I took some profits on ETH a couple weeks ago, and bought back in at a discount.  The Bull run is coming soon, unless WWIII happens! 

LTC was at $44 a few months ago ... now $102.  It's beating both ETH and BTC over the past 6 months.

J3ff

Matic was my game today.. only got 100, but hey, it's something

Lake_Bum

ALGO has been a good one over the past few months also.  ETH is set for another big upgrade next month.  These upgrades tend to get delayed usually, but ETH is a great one to trade in the short term. 

boatman37

you can set up an account with thinkorswim with no money. It has a paper trade function but it is delayed 20 minutes or so. If you call them they can set you up with real time. I used to use it all the time to test systems

boatman37

J3ff said:

I'm dipping my toes into day trading. With the assistance of tradingview.com and a couple neural network indicators that you can add to those charts. Coupled with the trailing edge stop, as well as the trailing edge buy... This would seem too easy in a bull market to make money. I understand that right now we are not in one or some people think we don't know which one we are in. Right now my goal is to just learn exactly what to do and when to do it, and the neural network indicators absolutely tell you when conditions are favorable for a stock to bump up.

Try the Lorentzian Classification indicator by jdehorty on TradingView. It's a machine learning indicator that has been working good in my testing.

J3ff

boatman37 said:

J3ff said:

I'm dipping my toes into day trading. With the assistance of tradingview.com and a couple neural network indicators that you can add to those charts. Coupled with the trailing edge stop, as well as the trailing edge buy... This would seem too easy in a bull market to make money. I understand that right now we are not in one or some people think we don't know which one we are in. Right now my goal is to just learn exactly what to do and when to do it, and the neural network indicators absolutely tell you when conditions are favorable for a stock to bump up.

Try the Lorentzian Classification indicator by jdehorty on TradingView. It's a machine learning indicator that has been working good in my testing.

that is the indicator that I use to have my phone play a sound when it's time to enter and exit... had it setup for Matic, btc, shib, eth, doge today... 6% and counting for Matic...took some profit from btc, and shib... and doge...  the only problem is when to sleep??   

boatman37

lol. i only day trade futures now. Still trade a little options and have long term commons but you can make so much so fast with futures without theta or implied volatility. Much easier. Made almost $1600 today using the Lorentzian alert. You can see I was in and out of the trade in about 17 minutes or so. this trade was good for about 10 points

I don't make this every day...not yet anyway

This was my short entry at about 10:40 AM EST

Here are my actual entries and exits in NinjaTrader

boatman37

This is the trade I wanted to take. It's based off the ICT system (Inner Circle Trader). I had my entry order in but didn't get filled. It would have been good for 20 points but I would have sold one of the contracts early.

These ICT trades work about 80% of the time but it is a very complex system that I'm have not perfected so my win % is closer to 60%

J3ff

Okay, you've got me interested.. I took in a couple 100 on Matic and at 430 am my phone made the "sell" noise...(also bailed out of doge and shiba at 2am, same noise played)  I see people talk about futures, but have no idea what they are really saying..

Shorts are something I haven't wanted to mess around w/ yet.. they seem kind of dangerous...    

I was in and out of matic one bar after the indicator showed up in this one.. honestly didn't make as much as I could have on it, because I waited too long to sell.. some people seem to sell as soon as the green bar turns red.. but I've seen that backfire too.. right now just trying to see what works. At the moment following the markers is stopping me from losing money!! 

Entered at the green line 1.4261  and exited at the red 1.5251... this is a huge improvement over the guessing game I used to play with.. back when things were good, it was easy to take a guess, and make 200 or so overnight on the 4am bump that seemed to just happen everynight, but lately it's been brutal trying to do anything like that.. it seems. I'm trying to slowly dig myself out of a 2k mistake from 2 weeks ago! Def. interested in talking about futures!




The green line that it rides  all the way up, it seems like it would make sense to exit as soon as it turns red, but for some reason folks seem to be resistant to doing that...and I see why.

Had you have done that in this one - you would have exited at the blue arrows, and been chasing it the entire time, I *think* (remember I dont really know what I'm talking about here, this is only one or so weeks into actually trying to use these things over here)... if exiting and entering on that green/red/green switch, you'd end up making nothing... and possibly losing.. the question is how to tell when the green line turning red is a real bail out moment, which I suppose is why you wait for the signal.

The one thing is, the red signals here are not the "close long" indicators.. they are the "open short" so I'm going to go see what's up with that.. maybe the close long indicator would show up earlier and help maximize the profit. 

boatman37

PM sent. S&P futures are /ES in thinkorswim and just ES in NinjaTrader. Micros are /MES and MES, respectively. I pretty much only trade ES biy occasionally trade NQ (Nasdaq futures)

YYZRC

Lake_Bum

YYZRC said:

If you sold, yes.   But we are about to have a big breakout like what happened in March of 2020.  I wish I was in the game then, and knew what I know now haha. 

MarkB

LTC = $40 in June 2022
LTC = $100 in Feb 2023
LTC all time high = $420

randy56

 Energy companies brought in yet another quarter of record profits, with Big Oil companies — such as Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon and Shell — notching their most profitable years in history. Elsewhere, Tesla reported record revenue gains and beat earnings expectations. Big box retailers Target and Walmart also surpassed estimates as US consumers kept on spending. 

randy56

Good news for jobs.

In just one year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of  4.5% to 4.75% to cool the economy. Job numbers, meanwhile, have blown past expectations for the past 10 months. The labor market is stronger than ever: The US added a shocking 517,000 jobs in January and knocked unemployment down to its lowest level since 1969.

Lake_Bum

Unemployment numbers are always cooked these days (both parties).  I don't think pretty much anyone can be trusted with TRUE numbers anymore.  They don't count so many different aspects of it, they present the figures with how it suits their agenda.  For example:  If 1 million people that are unemployed, stop seeking employment, they will just magically drop off the grid on the percentages of the jobless rate. 

boatman37

Yep. Unemployment only counts those that already have jobs or are actively seeking jobs. There are many out there today not looking for jobs so that number is skewed more today than ever. As for jobs created, there have been many lower paying jobs but higher paying jobs are very scarce, almost non-existent. My daughter lost her job in September. She was making about $140,000. She just took a $50,000 job and starts next week. She had applied for over 2000 jobs. The few higher paying jobs that were out there she was told there were over 400 applicants per opening. The lower paying jobs he was being told she was over-qualified.