Stock Market

MarkB

boatman37 said:

yeah if i had made any amount of money in crypto i would have pulled most of it. i just don't trust it or those running it. I have about $100-150 in crypto so no biggie if i lose it all. i bought BTC at about 13,000, which i think is where it is headed before it moves back up

You would need to be well in control of your feelings. When crypto gets going it goes up 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x ... so you'll be up 20% ... do you pull out? Most don't ... they're like, that's just the start ... goes up 80% ... oh, I was right to wait!  Goes up 150% .... oh baby now we talking ... LET IT RIDE ... 

We will always have greed to deal with ... easy to say when you're not in the middle of a trade, but when you are in ... you'll always fight the fear of missing out (FOMO) ... and be very concerned about pulling out too soon.

And of course, if you let it ride too long ... you come to the end of a cliff, and lose it all.

randy56

Stocks, precious metals, follow the same rules. Started buying silver in 2009, through 2012 pretty soon I'll be cashing out. Time has come and silver is up now. 

Dream_Inn

What a great day on the market!  Imagine if Powell said he’d take a break from raising rates!  My stocks averaged over 6% today!!

randy56

Yes, Thank you Powell.

rasbury

Well, I guess we should think of it wall street sees inflation on a path to come under control, fuel prices down, unemployment low is a good thing? Did I see a report the gdp is at a record high of 5 4%?

rasbury

So @MarkB we talking 150 bucks or 150 grand?

boatman37

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

yeah if i had made any amount of money in crypto i would have pulled most of it. i just don't trust it or those running it. I have about $100-150 in crypto so no biggie if i lose it all. i bought BTC at about 13,000, which i think is where it is headed before it moves back up

You would need to be well in control of your feelings. When crypto gets going it goes up 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x ... so you'll be up 20% ... do you pull out? Most don't ... they're like, that's just the start ... goes up 80% ... oh, I was right to wait!  Goes up 150% .... oh baby now we talking ... LET IT RIDE ... 

We will always have greed to deal with ... easy to say when you're not in the middle of a trade, but when you are in ... you'll always fight the fear of missing out (FOMO) ... and be very concerned about pulling out too soon.

And of course, if you let it ride too long ... you come to the end of a cliff, and lose it all.

I have been doing this long enough that I'm not afraid to sell...lol. In fact, I sell too soon. That is a problem I'm working on. Don't want to be greedy but I know (at least with a very high probability) that price is going to a certain point yet I sell way before it gets there, only to see it hit my exact mark a few days later. But I don't move stops so my self imposed R/R of 1:2 is actually closer to 1:1 cause I sell my winners too soon

MarkB

rasbury said:

So @MarkB we talking 150 bucks or 150 grand?

Everyone has their threshold ... the amount is exactly at the level where a trader can no longer control their emotions. Everyone should understand that number ... and the better one gets at controlling the emotions, probably the higher the threshold gets.  To some $1000 is too much to lose, to others it may be $100k.

MarkB

boatman37 said:

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

yeah if i had made any amount of money in crypto i would have pulled most of it. i just don't trust it or those running it. I have about $100-150 in crypto so no biggie if i lose it all. i bought BTC at about 13,000, which i think is where it is headed before it moves back up

You would need to be well in control of your feelings. When crypto gets going it goes up 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x ... so you'll be up 20% ... do you pull out? Most don't ... they're like, that's just the start ... goes up 80% ... oh, I was right to wait!  Goes up 150% .... oh baby now we talking ... LET IT RIDE ... 

We will always have greed to deal with ... easy to say when you're not in the middle of a trade, but when you are in ... you'll always fight the fear of missing out (FOMO) ... and be very concerned about pulling out too soon.

And of course, if you let it ride too long ... you come to the end of a cliff, and lose it all.

I have been doing this long enough that I'm not afraid to sell...lol. In fact, I sell too soon. That is a problem I'm working on. Don't want to be greedy but I know (at least with a very high probability) that price is going to a certain point yet I sell way before it gets there, only to see it hit my exact mark a few days later. But I don't move stops so my self imposed R/R of 1:2 is actually closer to 1:1 cause I sell my winners too soon

If this is any kind of support to you ...

I have made profit each time I sold early in profit. 100% success rate.
I have made profit very few times I held on ... maybe a 15% success rate.

The difference is ... holding is mostly (not always) based on emotions. I'm not talking about holding to a key resistance level ... and having a structured exit approach. I'm talking about greed holding ... just hoping that it will go higher. It may for a little while, then quicker than you can blink, it comes crashing down hard.

rasbury

Z
Makes me want to jump right in!

boatman37

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

yeah if i had made any amount of money in crypto i would have pulled most of it. i just don't trust it or those running it. I have about $100-150 in crypto so no biggie if i lose it all. i bought BTC at about 13,000, which i think is where it is headed before it moves back up

You would need to be well in control of your feelings. When crypto gets going it goes up 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x ... so you'll be up 20% ... do you pull out? Most don't ... they're like, that's just the start ... goes up 80% ... oh, I was right to wait!  Goes up 150% .... oh baby now we talking ... LET IT RIDE ... 

We will always have greed to deal with ... easy to say when you're not in the middle of a trade, but when you are in ... you'll always fight the fear of missing out (FOMO) ... and be very concerned about pulling out too soon.

And of course, if you let it ride too long ... you come to the end of a cliff, and lose it all.

I have been doing this long enough that I'm not afraid to sell...lol. In fact, I sell too soon. That is a problem I'm working on. Don't want to be greedy but I know (at least with a very high probability) that price is going to a certain point yet I sell way before it gets there, only to see it hit my exact mark a few days later. But I don't move stops so my self imposed R/R of 1:2 is actually closer to 1:1 cause I sell my winners too soon

If this is any kind of support to you ...

I have made profit each time I sold early in profit. 100% success rate.
I have made profit very few times I held on ... maybe a 15% success rate.

The difference is ... holding is mostly (not always) based on emotions. I'm not talking about holding to a key resistance level ... and having a structured exit approach. I'm talking about greed holding ... just hoping that it will go higher. It may for a little while, then quicker than you can blink, it comes crashing down hard.

That makes sense. Yeah holding to a key level is wise trading, possibly selling partials along the way but yeah, like you said, holding until oblivion is greed and you will lose almost every time in that scenario.

But while selling too soon still gives you profit it skews your risk/reward. If you look for minimum 1:2 R/R then you only need to be right 33% of the time (if my mental math is right...lol) where if you sell early and instead of your planned 1:2 you are now 1:1 then you need to be right 50% of the time to break even. I'll be honest, I'm only at about 50% win/loss ratio currently but I'm working on learning a new system where the guys that are good at it are running at about 80-90% accuracy. But my R/R is closer to 1:2 but I still sell too soon most of the time.

randy56

If you sell to soon you made a profit. If you wait to long, thinking it will double again, I found you lose, no profit. 

J3ff

Taking a small amount (under 5k) and spreading it around just to be invested, in case things start looking up.. 

Any thoughts on ARR and their 19% (currently) payout per year? 

J3ff

BTC is back!! Crypto winter is over!! (Hopefully, please be over..) 

Lake_Bum

I don't think it's time to celebrate YET.....but the recent bump is nice. I'm not taking any profits just yet, with inflation still hammering the economy as a whole.
  Goldman Sachs, who is traditionally VERY much against crypto in general, bought a lot of Bitcoin earlier this week.  
Traditional money, is getting on board with the future.  

boatman37

I'm not ready to go all in yet. Been day trading futures the past few months. /ES (S&P futures) should hit 4180 before we see any pullback. May get small roller coaster moves on the way there but on the larger timeframe (60 minute and longer) should be fairly smooth getting to that level.After that we may pull back but will see how it plays out

J3ff

I've been throwing a couple 100's into btc/doge/eth, everytime they hit new lows... hoping it really gets running!! New 370 venture could be here sooner than expected!! 

Willhound

J3ff said:

I've been throwing a couple 100's into btc/doge/eth, everytime they hit new lows... hoping it really gets running!! New 370 venture could be here sooner than expected!! 

Go to Vegas. Your odds are better and at least you'll get a vacation out of it....😉

J3ff

Willhound said:

J3ff said:

I've been throwing a couple 100's into btc/doge/eth, everytime they hit new lows... hoping it really gets running!! New 370 venture could be here sooner than expected!! 

Go to Vegas. Your odds are better and at least you'll get a vacation out of it....😉

ha ha! Overall my goal has just been to buy a little here and there, so that when the entire market eventually goes back up...because it will right....even if it's years...I don't get left behind.. 

Lake_Bum

Willhound said:

J3ff said:

I've been throwing a couple 100's into btc/doge/eth, everytime they hit new lows... hoping it really gets running!! New 370 venture could be here sooner than expected!! 

Go to Vegas. Your odds are better and at least you'll get a vacation out of it....😉

Big disagree here.  The house always wins. Those places didn't get built selling buffet lunches haha.   The lows of the pandemic, turned out to be the BEST time to buy.  We are currently going through some lows that are comparable. 

MarkB

Lake_Bum said:

I don't think it's time to celebrate YET.....but the recent bump is nice. I'm not taking any profits just yet, with inflation still hammering the economy as a whole.
  Goldman Sachs, who is traditionally VERY much against crypto in general, bought a lot of Bitcoin earlier this week.  
Traditional money, is getting on board with the future.  

Just remember, when you are hearing in the news of a company hammering an asset, they are probably setting themselves up to buy that asset. Otherwise, they wouldn't waste their time in the news about it.

Plenty of talk that BTC may hit just shy of $30k ... let's see.

MarkB

Willhound said:

J3ff said:

I've been throwing a couple 100's into btc/doge/eth, everytime they hit new lows... hoping it really gets running!! New 370 venture could be here sooner than expected!! 

Go to Vegas. Your odds are better and at least you'll get a vacation out of it....😉

There was a great opportunity to buy LiteCoin at $40 to $44 ... it was an easy buy. It's trading at $88, just a few months later. It probably will go to $105, or possibly much more.

Vegas is fine tuned to vacuum clean your wallet.

Dream_Inn

Well, even though Vegas is off topic, it keeps coming up and makes me laugh.  I certainly would never "invest" in playing at Vegas.  But, years ago I went on business trips there, probably totaling 100 days worth over a few or more years.  I read up on how to play craps and certain bets that actually give you the absolute best odds of any game in Vegas, period.  I couldn't tell you how much I played, but it sure was entertaining getting free drinks, rolling the dice and having fun at the table!  I did keep track of my "spending".  Over what was probably a couple hundred hours at the table total, I ended up with just over $1k in my pocket.  Most would say it was luck, sure was.  But I'll say it was consistent.  Some days maybe 2 or 300 bucks down.  Some days that much up.  What I definitely found is there was nobody else that could or would only play consistently the "come" line with 2 or 3x odds (or as much as they would allow).  Not too many places you can get free drinks and all that entertainment, and get some small change for doing it.  Another buddy that went knew the whole card counting thing.  He didn't stick to playing at one casino very long and actually made out pretty decent (probably 10X me over all of the trips).

I guess the market can be a gamble too, depending on what you are betting on.  I can't help but stay away from something like crypto.  I'll go with the words of Buffett, if I don't understand it, I don't bet on it. 

I edited this to add that yes, the house always wins the odds, my odds were somewhere like 99.8%.  So the house was still technically making money if you did it many times.

boatman37

In my mind crypto is gambling. Even small caps and OTC's are gambling. I only trade options on bigger names like TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, NFLX, etc. but I rarely hold anything overnight. My bigger account has common stock in similar names. The last few months been trading futures but never hold overnight.

Lake_Bum

Warren Buffet has the kind of money, that he can basically manipulate any market he wants to.  BNSF gave us all Carhartt jackets this year, so odds are, he invested in that company. I didn't research it, but those are the moves he makes haha.  

I was very skeptical of Crypto for years. It took the big explosion of Shiba Inu to get my attention.  There's LOTS of ways to make money in Crypto, and plenty to lose it.  Just like stocks....

MarkB

Dream_Inn said:

Well, even though Vegas is off topic, it keeps coming up and makes me laugh.  I certainly would never "invest" in playing at Vegas.  But, years ago I went on business trips there, probably totaling 100 days worth over a few or more years.  I read up on how to play craps and certain bets that actually give you the absolute best odds of any game in Vegas, period.  I couldn't tell you how much I played, but it sure was entertaining getting free drinks, rolling the dice and having fun at the table!  I did keep track of my "spending".  Over what was probably a couple hundred hours at the table total, I ended up with just over $1k in my pocket.  Most would say it was luck, sure was.  But I'll say it was consistent.  Some days maybe 2 or 300 bucks down.  Some days that much up.  What I definitely found is there was nobody else that could or would only play consistently the "come" line with 2 or 3x odds (or as much as they would allow).  Not too many places you can get free drinks and all that entertainment, and get some small change for doing it.  Another buddy that went knew the whole card counting thing.  He didn't stick to playing at one casino very long and actually made out pretty decent (probably 10X me over all of the trips).

I guess the market can be a gamble too, depending on what you are betting on.  I can't help but stay away from something like crypto.  I'll go with the words of Buffett, if I don't understand it, I don't bet on it. 

I edited this to add that yes, the house always wins the odds, my odds were somewhere like 99.8%.  So the house was still technically making money if you did it many times.

Well for exactly that reason when I go to Vegas, Craps is what I play ... it's about risk management, and you can often come out ahead ... not always, but for sure, overall, I am up on that game!

YYZRC

Isn’t boating a form of gambling? Which part will break next?? I’m definitely addicted but I’m not up, that much is for certain. 

Dream_Inn

YYZRC said:

Isn’t boating a form of gambling? Which part will break next?? I’m definitely addicted but I’m not up, that much is for certain. 

So true.  I’ve spent more on boating than I lost the last year plus in the market or what I’ve paid for our house.  It is an addiction!
In the last few days, I spent 330 bucks on redoing my rear cushion, 2k on rear canvas, and 1k on a new fridge!  Crazy!

Lake_Bum

The Fed announces a .25% rate hike, and Crypto explodes.  Doesn't make much sense, but I'll take it!  Pretty tough in this inflation staggered economy, but things are looking up

MarkB

Lake_Bum said:

The Fed announces a .25% rate hike, and Crypto explodes.  Doesn't make much sense, but I'll take it!  Pretty tough in this inflation staggered economy, but things are looking up

Well, the narrative that the crypto community is interpreting from this is ... rate hikes are slowing, so the pain is stopping, and the likelihood of a recession is lower. 

Crypto is turning bullish, and they just didn't want the rate increase to be higher than expected, or showing signs of not stopping ... which it didn't. The news was seen as positive (slowing of interest rate increases), which gave the signal to the bullish momentum to continue.

Note that several people I talk to think that BTC will stall at around 30k ... I also support that hypothesis ... but it's all guesswork.