Stock Market

YYZRC

I think the most prescient point that @Michael T made is that the money on the sidelines won't sit there for much longer...

maxwell

in response to Mark B on real estate...point is...like Gold..real estate should have a "BASE VALUE".A value....that can not be screwed with..by banks..ect...Leaving things to "Market Forces",is an insiders game,the insiders,are the ones that control price.these days..NOT THE PUBLIC.....not, supply and demand..THATS whats wrong..these days compared to the past.
Something real..is average 5 year lumber ,and concrete costs...average 5 year labor costs..average copper wire costs..ect..if one wants to bid things up after that,then fine,thats the "at risk' part..its when you have a dense wanted to be lived in area,plenty of people, working jobs,people  that need housing.and can pay for it...and the cost of land ,materials and labor to build 500,000. bucks of house happens..then the fed and banks decide to play games and the appraiser ...comes by and says(glibly) ,...your house is ONLY worth 250,000. buddy...??and then you say why??They say .."Hey..its only worth what somebody will pay for it"...Well..thats when the **** hits the stick for me...its THEFT at that point.Consider,Gold..what does it cost to find it,and get it out of the ground??Bring it to market?about 2,000. bucks an ounce..at minimum these days....(another controled market)
but,funny,... no fluff ,allowed ever there..is there..Why?Point is,IMHO....Housing ,like gold,should have a minimal.. RESPECTED,"Base Value",of  Land,labor ,material cost,minus depeciation..THAT,at the very least.Another 2008...where banks have zero skin in the game,should result in banker jail times,and NOT minimal.. country club jail time. 
sorry..my body was the labor that built those houses..now I have enough pain in it,to sink a ship!..call me banker Jaded.

maxwell

Florida real estate is on my mind for obvious reasons...despite Ian...what happens to lot prices  in coastal florida at this point, going forward?
I watched the average door county  Wisconsin,lot price ,per sq. ft., quadruple or even worse over  just 2 years time..at this point, there is almost nothing ,available .

boatman37

Anyone that tries to catch a top or bottom is flirting with disaster. But to try to catch a falling knife is also risky. And yes I get that it can shoot straight back up when we get these dips but I feel this is different. We have fallen so far over such an extended timeframe that I think we will see a more rounded bottom than a V reversal. Typically sharp drops are followed by sharp reversals back to the upside (V shaped reversal).

That said, I did add very little to my longer term accounts today. If we aren't near bottom now then I think we will drop another 10-20%

MarkB

boatman37 said:

Anyone that tries to catch a top or bottom is flirting with disaster. But to try to catch a falling knife is also risky. And yes I get that it can shoot straight back up when we get these dips but I feel this is different. We have fallen so far over such an extended timeframe that I think we will see a more rounded bottom than a V reversal. Typically sharp drops are followed by sharp reversals back to the upside (V shaped reversal).

That said, I did add very little to my longer term accounts today. If we aren't near bottom now then I think we will drop another 10-20%

Exactly my point. Why try catching a falling knife ... that's burnt WAY too many people. There's a number of points I need to make to address the last few posts made by several individuals.

First is ... you need to have a chart, and know where the various support levels are, and when resistance/support is broken.  If it's falling, you don't know how many of those support levels will be broken ... and you can lose a lot of money, guessing when to buy on the way down.  Perhaps an alternative strategy is to establish the next 5 support zones, and buy in 20% of your capital at a time ... you may not get to support level 5 (lowest) ... so any additional cash is used on the way up, when you have back-check of support, after resistance is hit.

If we are talking long term ... do you guys really see any historical event that completely reverses all the losses to the market top in one capitulation reversal event. NOT a chance ... you will have that v-shaped bottom, there will be buy back, it will cool off, it will back check support (on a reversal) ... and when that support is confirmed ... you buy.  You will probably be buying 15% to 20% from the bottom ... but at least you have a much higher probability the direction is up, not more down.

Perhaps another point is, you need to take control of your trades ... if you have to go through a broker or third party ... it's going to take longer ... then I think you'd rather just have them manage your portfolio. I encourage people to have fast methods of investment, and if you are savvy enough with charts and investment strategies (which isn't that simple actually) ... then direct trades with online platforms is an option.

Remember, the argument here is long term, and I don't see how you cannot apply that same opportunity on the bullish side of a capitulation event.  You may buy 20% higher than the bottom ... but the long term view is that your investment will grow much more from when you enter ... and you effectively could remove the guesswork of how much more correction there could be, if you try buying on the way down (catching a falling knife).

Michael T

Big day today - like I had hoped for a 700 point day. If it's not a dead cat bounce we may be seeing a reversal. I think everyone realizes that Putin will not use nuclear weapons and that his "second best army" is a total paper tiger with poorly trained personnel and crap equipment (If I was Putin I'd be more worried about China realizing he's getting his a$$ kicked by a much smaller country) but I digress - oil prices will rise as OPEC tightens and all the worrisome drama will become white noise. The markets will recover - they HAVE too. Even old guys like me will do just fine and you younger guys with a plan (Like @Dream_Inn ) will live to see glory days return to the stock market!.....as for falling knives I've caught two and now I think it will soon be three, over the course of my investment history. I always look for signals of a pending bottom, buy-in, if it drops further I don't give a $hit - I just wait and then ride it up. Has worked like a charm for me - over the years. It's all about personal risk tolerance and never panic or sell out of frustration.

randy56

@MarkB You sound like you are very educated in the stock market. Where did you learn? or is that your lively hood? 

Michael T

The trading day ain't over yet and for sure a lot can change in two hours but when I think a bottom has been hit or is close to it, as I mentioned earlier in the this thread, and I see a couple of 700 days that is, IMO, good news. There may be a test this winter as LNG and piped gas to Europe causes inflation and some of Biden's spending give-aways prompt concern but regardless the stock market has to get off its a$$ sooner rather than later and I think that day is coming. 

boatman37

i like what i'm seeing so far this week but i'm still being cautious. i did add some commons to my long term accts but won't let them get too red if we start to reverse back down

MarkB

randy56 said:

@MarkB You sound like you are very educated in the stock market. Where did you learn? or is that your lively hood? 

I learned by getting burned in crypto because I just "followed someone else's advice". I vowed to come back from that ... and I read up A LOT on charting, patterns, trade strategies ... including elliot wave theory, gannbox, ichimoku clouds, TD sequence, doji interpretation ... and then interpretation of trends. But mostly ... and this is the most important ... I learned how to control my emotions in the trade.

When you see it enough times ... and crypto is like the traditional stock market on crack-cocaine ... you see cataclysmic events on a monthly basis ... lol, you learn the candles and patterns that spell capitulation ... you learn the support and resistance levels, and how to get in, and get out ... even though you're scared or greedy.

I managed to recoup all my losses in crypto as a result. 

However, I'd say my major remaining issue is greed ... I hold onto gains too long, only to see them reverse. I often have the right trade strategy, but get too greedy ...

At the moment, I'm down because of that, I made a big bet, and it started off well, but turned red ... and I thought it was a fake out, but it just kept getting worse, and lost about 30% by the time I pulled the plug. Turns out, I missed an important piece of news (and when I found out, that's when I pulled the plug).

Having said all that, I would not call myself an expert ... not even close. I'm self taught, have similar minded peers and we learn off each other ... and have lived and learned a few things. But, for sure, I'm not trying to create an impression that I'm some expert. I learned for myself, and I know what has worked, so I just use that strategy.

boatman37

Nice to hear of another technical trader. I got into it by accident. Back in 2013 I was working for a company that gave a % annually into a SEP-IRA with Schwab. After a few months of my balance not changing I asked a co-worker and he told me we have to call Schwab to set it up or trade it ourselves. So I started researching. Started with penny stocks then options then blew out my account. A few years later gave it another try and went back to options then tried trading futures. For the past several years been trading options but a couple of months ago went back to trading futures.

I have tried about every strategy out there including Ichimoku Cloud, moving averages, MACD, stochastics,The Strat and now I'm working on the ICT (Inner Circle Trading) FVG system. That paired with The Strat is a great system. My charts have no indicators on them, only price action and a quasi-indicator that shows the Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

But agreed with Mark, anyone can learn to read charts but the reason most traders fail is the inability to handle emotions.

randy56

We learn the most from failure. 
My list of worst investments, not in any order. any one want to add to the list?

Crypto's
Stock market -- penny's
casino
timeshares, my dad invested in them, big loss for him. 
race horses
personal loans to so called friends/family
Network marketing/pyramid scheme 

boatman37

My biggest losses were from fast cars...lol. In the stock market my biggest loss was shortly after I started several years ago. Listened to some guys about JALA. It was a frozen yogurt start up started by the same guys that created Skinny Cow so it was highly hyped. Made a little money on it to start but then kept averaging down as the price dropped then went through several reverse splits. I started with about 5000 shares but through all of the reverse splits I think I have 55 shares now and my $9000 investment is now worth about $20. Lessen learned and why I never try to average down or catch the bottom.

halifax212

randy56 said:

We learn the most from failure. 
My list of worst investments, not in any order. any one want to add to the list?

Crypto's
Stock market -- penny's
casino
timeshares, my dad invested in them, big loss for him. 
race horses
personal loans to so called friends/family
Network marketing/pyramid scheme 

The Franz Bader "Success Formula" Marketing Seminar (1985)
Crypto  Nov 2021 - Buy high, average down, hold and hope it gets better(still waiting)

boatman37

I never got into the crypto. I never saw it as a legitimate trading commodity. Sure lots of people made lots of money but it was a big risk. I did buy like $700 of it and doubled my money then sold 1/2 so got my $700 back. The rest is basically free at this point so will hold it until whenever.

rasbury

I have never jumped injection you guys.  Have always done the 401 through work, mutual type funds which seem to have constant growth over the years. My aunt recently passed away and left an account with more specific stocks. She had home depot and Microsoft she bought for just a few bucks. I'm sure the fees that go along  with either but on my own would br be totally lost. 

boatman37

One of the guys that was in a trading room with me several years ago told me one day that his mother had passed away and they were going through her stuff. Both of his parents had worked for McKesson decades ago and had accumulated stock through compensation. He thought he had it right but went to a financial advisor to verify and there was over $3 million in stock there for him and his sister. He had no idea they existed.

Lake_Bum

rasbury said:

I have never jumped injection you guys.  Have always done the 401 through work, mutual type funds which seem to have constant growth over the years. My aunt recently passed away and left an account with more specific stocks. She had home depot and Microsoft she bought for just a few bucks. I'm sure the fees that go along  with either but on my own would br be totally lost. 

I would seek someone local that you trust, to guide you through that process of liquidating those.  Sounds like she left a substantial amount. 

oscar1

I being ready some of the comments about stock market and to be honest I never own a single stock in my life.  Because in my opinion I don't have any control over my investment which it can be manipulate by a lot of people in power. On the other hand. I am really believe in real estate investment, because the market can go up and down but I still have my initial investment aka property to rent or to sale in the future for a lot more money. But it is only my opinion 
Somebody sent me the following graphics about the stock market retirement account since 2021. I don't know the true about it.

randy56

Real estate is always a good investment if you buy it right. Maybe looking at some SWF soon. A friend that lives in Port Charlotte said 50% of the house's will be totaled by the insurance company's. As they do not want to pay hotel bills. And renovation, They will right them a check. then they own the home. Then sell it for what they can get. A few of the realtors are gearing up for this. Looking for investors.

Dream_Inn

My father lives in Port Charlotte and got very lucky.  He can still live in his house, but he does need a new roof and new siding.  I guess they were able to temporarily cover the roof so rain doesn't come thru. Makes sense about paying for the hotel bills.
@oscar1 not to start anything with politics, but yes I believe most of that is true.  I'm about 20% down in my 401k and 25% in my savings.  I haven't looked real close at my different IRAs to know how far down those are.  I'm sure in time it will all go back up.

oscar1

It is good to know your father is doing right after this catastrophic hurricane, I have several properties in cape coral which those are going to need a new roof too, but about the stock market to be honest I don't have any idea how the system work. It is not my cup of tea, but i like to read everybody comment to use their knowledge to read the market for real estate.

rasbury

I thought about buying some property but I just don't want to deal with renters. With my limited knowledge,  houses go up 10% a year and over the long term stocks seem to do the same. Both have peaks and valleys. I'm not sure what insurance for a home will look like going forward. Fema will do nothing to help with rental properties.....prices are starting to come back down in Central FL with the higher rates so that will get that growth under control hopefully..crap shoot I suppose either path...I still work with the investor my aunt worked with for many years.  Enron about wiped her out....I don't have to pay any taxes on the gain in the stocks so I'm just letting it cook and adding more to it.

Lake_Bum

With the stock market tanking, and massive inflation not slowing down, I grew tired of watching my 401K and Roth IRA shrinking at a fast pace about 6 months ago. To sever the bleeding, I lowered my paycheck contributions to only 1% on both of those, and diverted my investments into Crypto.  The only downside that I have seen so far to this plan, is my contributions were pre-tax through my work, and that might hurt a little at tax time, but I believe the rewards will be much greater on the Crypto.  

rasbury

I just can't drink that cool aid...sounds like the .com stock crash...

Willhound

I'm down about 12% this year and expect another 8 possibly but still up 20 over the last three. Ain't touching nothing, in fact I'm buying more. We did take some profit last spring and sitting in money market which over the next 6 months is going into blue chip energy stocks with dividends. All of it except for a $50 K emergency fund is tax sheltered.

mattie

Lake_Bum said:

With the stock market tanking, and massive inflation not slowing down, I grew tired of watching my 401K and Roth IRA shrinking at a fast pace about 6 months ago. To sever the bleeding, I lowered my paycheck contributions to only 1% on both of those, and diverted my investments into Crypto.  The only downside that I have seen so far to this plan, is my contributions were pre-tax through my work, and that might hurt a little at tax time, but I believe the rewards will be much greater on the Crypto.  

@Lake_Bum
Hey, Lake Bum I'd jack your paycheck contributions back up again. Especially if your employer is matching your contributions.
You are buying the same stocks for 25% off right now.
Dollar cost averaging will really help out over time.

Buy when everybody is pessimistic - sell when everybody is optimistic.

boatman37

Yeah I wouldn't be cutting my contributions right now. It will eventually go back up and we may never be able to buy at these prices again. I know I keep saying don't be averaging down yet but in a long term retirement account that is employer matched I don't see the problem with leaving it alone. You automatically get 100% if your employer matches

Dream_Inn

I agree that now is the time to max out the 401k.  I screwed up and maxed mine so much that I now can’t put enough in thru rest of year to get full company match.  Oh well, I only miss out a little.

randy56

I put a healthy amount in Edward Jones CD about a month ago @4.1% for 1 year. There CD rate raised up a touch since then. 3 mos is 3.5% - 6 mos is 4.0 - 1 year is 4.35%. As far as the stock market not selling at a loss ever again. I'll let it die, or recover. In 2008 when it dipped down so low people panicked. I did not sell, it paid off a few years later then sold out at a profit. Got out completely until 2020. got back in the game, should have stayed out. And kept those $ in real estate. 
Real Estate is slowing, and prices are predicted to go down, 5.5% in 2023. Early this spring I sold a couple houses, and they were bidding them up, with 5-6 offers one was 15 k over my asking price. Two weeks ago I put another on the market, only got two offers and they were for full price.