Stock Market

Dream_Inn

Lake_Bum said:

   This bear market is a great time to accumulate. 

I agree with that.  I wish I had more dry powder to put in, but I have been moving some around to take losses on things to invest in others that have definitely popped back up.  BYDDY is one that I've done well on for sure.  I'm also almost double on SLB, but now cautious about how much further to continue on all my energy stocks.  I don't want to be greedy, so a little off the table on those might be good soon.  I was also able to add more to my NIO as it went down.  I'm also thinking my AMAT (chip tool maker) will pop well in the next quarter.

MarkB

Lake_Bum said:

I am still accumulating XRP and ETH on any days they are down significantly.  The Etherium merge/upgrade is still on track for August.  ETH 2.0 basically means it is going from proof of work, to proof of stake.  The price should jump a LOT after the transition to ETH 2.0.   This bear market is a great time to accumulate. 

Might be a sell the news thing though. A lot of the ETH 2.0 hype may already be priced in. I expect a sell shortly after they fork (almost always happens) ... but long term it should be interesting.

boatman37

AMZN had their 20:1 split yesterday. I bought a few shares to start my collection. If it follows suit it should be back up there before too long. Aside from that still waiting on a reversal signal on the market. We have been sideways for about 6 or 7 days now so thinking they are accumulating at these levels but will see

Michael T

Yeah, I'm at a point where I am forced to take money out (government regulations) although I can shift it to another account vehicle but am seriously thinking of putting six figures back into the market. It's just too tempting at this point. It's not often that chances like this present themselves. There is a LOT of money running around up here. $900K for new semi detached houses are "normal" A house I built in 1987 just sold for 2.4 mil. Prices for used cars and boats are truly nuts. I was given a genuine offer of +15K for the 2014 Mustang I bought in December. People are paying crazy prices for vacation rentals - like $750 a day for vacation rental condos in Aruba that went for $250 a day a couple of years ago - makes me worry that we are institutionalizing self-inflicted NOT market-inflicted inflation.

randy56

Here is the stock market.

Willhound

I'm the guy just lurking around the edge, picking up a dollar here and a dollar there. After awhile it adds up and nobody notices.
Have a largish chunk sitting in cash/money market right now waiting. About a third of my F.U. money. With inflation and higher interest rates we are in for a pretty good correction in personal real estate which will lead (in my opinion) to a bunch of foreclosures and bankruptcies for those that bit off more than they should have. This will drive the market down a bit as investors get jittery and then I'll buy back in, dollar cost averaging as I go. I don't like trying to time the market but I'll bet a cold beer the bottom is coming in about 6 months to a year and then a rebound. Meanwhile my blue chip financials and consumer necessities like grocery chains and healthcare are paying cash dividends hand over fist and are immediately reinvested. No analysis or online forum wizards needed.
Time for a beer....

boatman37

I try not to 'predict' the market but instead react to price action but I also have a feeling we are looking at a prolonged correction. I think this is just the beginning. I posted a couple of weeks ago about a weekly reversal and possibly a monthly reversal. If they were anywhere close to wanting to take it back up they had the perfect opportunity to do it when a monthly reversal was literally 1 good trading day away. That just tells me that big money still has no faith in the market. Algorithms need 3 things to function...1) what to do 2) when to do it 3) how to do it. If they had taken the month up ot would have triggered many algos and big money would have started buying. The fact they didn't tells me they feel we aren't done with this selloff.

I also think the real estate bubble will pop soon and along with inflation, fuel prices, supply chain issues, etc, it will take quite awhile to get the confidence back to bring buyers in. I also feel we are looking at least 6-12 months out and I will be watching for a monthly reversal before I start looking at it seriously. With all of that said I'm not going to keep 'averaging down' then run out of funds only to watch it drop another 20% and now I need a 50% move back to the upside just to get back to even. You could be underwater for a year or more. I am all cash in my day trade acct but my IRA is about 75% cash right now. Remember that if you lose 25% you need 50% gain to get back to even

Dream_Inn

boatman37 said:

 Remember that if you lose 25% you need 50% gain to get back to even

Not exactly true.  If you lose 25%, you need 33.33% to get back to even. (example, start with $100, go down to $75.  You need $25 to break even, or 25/75).  But yes, the point is you don't go off of percent, you go by the amount of $ you need to break even.

I'm definitely down quite a bit, but I'm not pulling out.  I can leave it for the long ride, even if short term it looks like a dumb move.  About a third of what I have is in good strong dividend stocks, so they are doing ok (little above break-even).  My oil & energy stocks are doing fine.  My technology ones, well, of course they are down.  But I do think a couple of them will make out just fine in the next year or two.

Willhound

My comments last night are backed up by survey results released this morning.
"Nearly one in four homeowners say they will have to sell their home if interest rates go up further, according to a new debt survey from Manulife Bank of Canada.

The survey, conducted between April 14 and April 20, also found that 18 per cent of homeowners polled are already at a stage where they can't afford their homes."

In addition Stats Canada released a report this morning: "The ratio of household debt to disposable income hit a record level of 186.2 per cent in the fourth quarter as mortgage borrowing rose and disposable income fell. That was up from a revised reading of 180.4 per cent for the third quarter. The reading means there was $1.86 in credit market debt for every dollar of household disposable income."
I suspect the situation is somewhat the same in the U.S.

The sh!ts gonna hit the fan.

Dream_Inn

Definitely sounds like a housing market bubble coming soon!  Not a surprise with all the crazy buying that was going on out there.  I would think though that people would be smart enough to at least have a fixed rate.  Seems as though we go thru that endless cycle.  People buying homes never learn and banks lending the money never learn either.

raybo3

Why would people have to sell their house if rates go up. My condo is fixed rate so it stays the same. I thought most mortgages were fixed rate or am I wrong about that? I also thought vari rates were capped and can only go up after time restrictions. 

randy56

raybo3 said:

Why would people have to sell their house if rates go up. My condo is fixed rate so it stays the same. I thought most mortgages were fixed rate or am I wrong about that? I also thought vari rates were capped and can only go up after time restrictions. 

Agree where are they going to go? At what cost? Unless they have an variable rate. They probley cannot live anywhere less than what they are paying. As long as they used the golden rule - your house payment should not be any more than 1/3 of your income.  As you need the other moneys for food, GASOLINE, insurance, cars, heating and cooling ect. 

Quote:
The ratio of household debt to disposable income hit a record level of 186.2 per cent in the fourth quarter as mortgage borrowing rose and disposable income fell.

I'm sure it is equal here in the states. roomers are, folks are stacking up high credit card dept.  Without the means to pay it back. 

Quote:
"Nearly one in four homeowners say they will have to sell their home if interest rates go up further, according to a new debt survey from Manulife Bank of Canada.

Why would that bank loan them the money if the dept to income was so close? Knowing they were setting them up for failure. Both the home owner and the bank will lose in the end. 

Willhound

raybo3 said:

Why would people have to sell their house if rates go up. My condo is fixed rate so it stays the same. I thought most mortgages were fixed rate or am I wrong about that? I also thought vari rates were capped and can only go up after time restrictions. 

Because if rates go up the payment goes up and they can't pay it. So they either sell, often at less than the house is worth just to get out, or worse, go into default and the mortgage lender repos the house. Fixed rate mortgages are typically for a period of 3 to 7 years at which time the mortgage is renegotiated at whatever the market rate is at. So you might be making your payment ok for now, but your mortgage matures in a year and then all of a sudden your new payment is way higher and you have so much debt you can't carry it all. 
So you end up with a bunch of houses in the market, and too many would be home owners that can't afford to buy, thereby driving prices down.
Credit has been WAY too cheap the last several years and a lot of people are in way over their head.

raybo3

@Willhound I don't agree. My mortgage is locked in for the life of the mortgage. That is the purpose of a fixed rate mortgage. If it was going to change I would have got a variable rate and it would have started a little lower. The only time my fixed rate mortgage has ever gone up is because my taxes went up so the escrow goes up.

YYZRC

Is mortgage interest tax deductible in the US?

randy56

They must have different mortgage's than we do. A fixed rate is a fixed rate.  

randy56

@boatman37
What do you make of AMC, darkpool, fraud, lots crazy shi$ going on. Illegally diluted by billions. Recall 30 million shares Monday. 

boatman37

We have fixed rate so the only thing that changes my payment is property tax increases. I wouldn't go variable rate ever

boatman37

randy56 said:

@boatman37
What do you make of AMC, darkpool, fraud, lots crazy shi$ going on. Illegally diluted by billions. Recall 30 million shares Monday. 

I haven't followed it. I don't trade the 'meme' stuff so haven't even paid attention. I have traded it in the past but I only have a list of about 10 that I trade now (SPY, QQQ, NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, META, DIS, NVDA, IWM and that's about it. I don'y pay much attention to anything outside of that but did trade MS today but I hate trading banks. I bought puts and it dropped for the next 2 hours and I only made about 5% on it. Hate trading banks....lol.

But as far as AMC, I only trade charts. Don't look at dark pools or social media chatter and with AMC the stock is heavily manipulated so the chart really isn't reliable.

Willhound

raybo3 said:

@Willhound I don't agree. My mortgage is locked in for the life of the mortgage. That is the purpose of a fixed rate mortgage. If it was going to change I would have got a variable rate and it would have started a little lower. The only time my fixed rate mortgage has ever gone up is because my taxes went up so the escrow goes up.

Interesting...Our system is different here. Mortgages are typically offered by the major banks and trust companies and are typically for anywhere from a one to ten year term, with the most popular being 3 or 5 as they offer the best overall annual rates. Posted rates at one of our larger lenders are currently showing 4.29% for one year, 4.84% at five but if you go ten, it rises to 6.15%.
My current mortgage is at 2.49% on a five year, but comes open next year so will have to re-negotiate that rate and it will likely rise by a couple of points, so payments will be higher. Our mortgage interest is also not tax deductible as I understand it is in the U.S.

randy56

Just sold a flip house the people got 5%, 30 year fixed. We close 27th. 

randy56

@boatman37 I do not have any AMC, so we when to see the new Top Gun movie a week ago. When I saw how many people were at the theater, then started looking at there stock. Thinking the company is on there way  to recovery. Lots of volume, you may be correct, and manipulation. Best to stay away from that one.

maxwell

Please someone tell me how in the heck ,they are  going to pull off raising.. interest rates, higher then a full point or two  from here...at the most..???Big Wow...my first mortgage was almost 14%..and I thought I had a good one..that will never happen again..
my prediction..
Wheres the fed going with all the jawboning??

Mortgage rates at 6-7% .to good credit...thats it.no higher...thats as high as they will ever get..to go higher would make the USA... insolvent..We have too much debt as a nation ...raising to 21%, like in the past,to kill inflation.??yes..that was an option..  when we were not such a debtor nation..as we are today..

6 to 7% Mortgage rates..will not stop things.inflation..to increase, no matter what....Fed talk...is a bunch of threats...They are caught in a trap..they have little power to raise rates substanially...get ready to pay a lot more for everything..unfortunetely..just like in the past..things will double in price..wages will  then follow..(5 years). in the end..life will go on,... at the new level.
Yes first inflation..(now)..then stagflation..for years..then another bubble is blown.Hard assets..metals..commodities..crypto???not sure....they are calling it a winter..I call it the predictable. Like the guy that bought last at the pyramid power party..That was me..never forgot..ouch!

raybo3

@Willhound that is pretty much how our variable rate mortgages work. Fixed rate never changes ecept for tax changes.....

Dream_Inn

Interesting that something like home mortgages can be so different just up the road in Canada.  I would've thought that the option to buy fixed mortgages would've been there too.  With the rates as low as they were the last couple years, it is crazy for anyone with option to not have a fixed rate.  Many years ago, in early 2000's, I had a variable rate connected to LIBOR (which doesn't exist now).  Luckily I benefited from it for a very long time with a rate lower than any fixed ones out there.  It also helped that the rates were going down at that point.

@maxwell I agree with your comments, but I'm sure people that had interest rates at 14 or 15% were saying that we would never see 3%.  The word never may not be quite correct.  I do agree that mortgage rates around 7% is a good number.  Something needs to push on getting a handle on the debt we have as a country. 

So, is it going up 0.75 today or just 0.5?

Willhound

@Dream_Inn my examples were all fixed rates......just the terms are shorter. A fixed rate for the entire life of the mortgage doesn't exist here. Specialty lenders will sometimes have a 15 or 20 year term, but rates will be high. When your term ends here there's no guarantee it'll automatically renew, it's like a while new application process, especially if you want to try and negotiate a better rate. We used a mortgage broker our last two renewals and it saved us big time on the rates. Our bank offered us 3.9% at renewal, the broker got us 2.94, same bank, same branch. And they pay the broker.
It is actually possible here that at renewal, if your financial situation has changed a lot for the worse, your lender will refuse to renew, or at a significantky higher rate for the higher risk. Doesn't happen often, they'd rather you continue to pay, but it is possible.

randy56

had to read that twice, same bank, 1% lower interest rate. Shame you do not have any options. A government banking law? I remember when money was tight, and people had flexible rate mortgages is was a 5 year renewable term, and some banks did not renew all loans. Then people had to go somewhere else and pay all closing cost again. Bad idea.

maxwell

Point is...Whats going to happen to real estate..the largest wealth driver???another 2008??
 Greedy bank capitol firms, scarfing up peoples dreams?..and everything they put into their homes for the last 20 years???in wide spread defaults??,,or...
Dow 60,000???,,...or...Gold $5000.??? .or...bitcoin?your guess.....I say  countries,..should tie their  currency to real estate..its REAL...and it takes LABOR..plus commodity ...to make it happen..not to mention..land costs..boy have the bankers got us all hoodwinked!
The way the world works ..it sucks!

MarkB

maxwell said:

Point is...Whats going to happen to real estate..the largest wealth driver???another 2008??
 Greedy bank capitol firms, scarfing up peoples dreams?..and everything they put into their homes for the last 20 years???in wide spread defaults??,,or...
Dow 60,000???,,...or...Gold $5000.??? .or...bitcoin?your guess.....I say  countries,..should tie their  currency to real estate..its REAL...and it takes LABOR..plus commodity ...to make it happen..not to mention..land costs..boy have the bankers got us all hoodwinked!
The way the world works ..it sucks!

Only thing is why should a house that costs $250k in Clearwater, cost $1.5 million in Toronto ... it's not labor.

It's supply and demand ... and when the demand tanks due to unaffordability, compounded by rising interest rates ... well...

boatman37

Trader friend of mine just posted this.