Stock Market

randy56

Well it was nice to see that come back. all green day. Now with the announcement of Russia, may do something. All those gains will be gone by the end of the day. What I do not understand about the stock market is why this happens. Like when they sent 3000 troops to Poland. Every sells out. The market dropped like a rock that day. What kind of fear do people have?   The sun is coming up in the AM. Your life style will not change if they invade. Are you going to run to the bank today an pull all your money out? NO. Are going eat every day . Yes. As I type the DOW is down 460 points.  Is there that much fear, or everyone that weak? The earth will sill turn. Is commerce going to stop? NO.

Ok off my soap box. 

boatman37

Most of the trading is done by algorithms now and they are set to buy or sell under certain conditions. For simplicity sake let's say they sell if the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average. When these large orders go through it magnifies the selling at stocks are sold at market orders (meaning get out no matter the price) so a $200 stock may quickly drop to 195. This triggers stops that may be set by other holders, which causes more selling so sort of like a domino effect. Then day traders like me see everything red then I check the VIX. The VIX is called 'the fear index. When it goes up steadily it usually means the selling is caused by fear. Not really but that's how many interpret it. Add this into everything else going on (market top heavy, inflation, Russia) and people are on edge so are trigger happy to sell. In my IRA I'm still holding and haven't sold any common stocks but am not in too heavy so will be buying at discount once I start seeing signs of reversals on larger timeframes (at least weekly charts but will have tight stops until I see monthly reversals). In my smaller daytrading account I trade options only and do not hold overnight. Today I traded SPY puts a few times for nice gains as the market dropped. But trading is very tough right now and holding overnight is a crapshoot

Lake_Bum

This is fascinating.  The data checks out too. Very easily confirmed.  The same pattern can be put to a LOT of different cryptos out there.  Really quick video, check it out. 

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdB6GN7v/

randy56

Thanks for the lesson boatman. I knew bots did most of the trading, and it's hard to compete with them. But I never heard of the VIX. The fear index. Going forward I'll be keeping an eye on it. Now have it in my favorites list, and you watch it to try an make decisions daily. interesting, as DOW ended up down 622 yesterday.   So now we have 3 fears, Russia, inflation, oil prices. I'm learning.  

MarkB

Check out litecoin ... it's going through some really interesting upgrades in the next few months, and is considered a high cap and one of the original crypto coins.  It's the silver to what is bitcoin as a gold standard.

Dream_Inn

Interesting article on where all these expensive yachts are going.  You guys just need to get better at crypto!😁

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/young-crypto-investors-tech-entrepreneurs-fuel-yacht-industry-boom-121533446.html

boatman37

randy56 said:

Thanks for the lesson boatman. I knew bots did most of the trading, and it's hard to compete with them. But I never heard of the VIX. The fear index. Going forward I'll be keeping an eye on it. Now have it in my favorites list, and you watch it to try an make decisions daily. interesting, as DOW ended up down 622 yesterday.   So now we have 3 fears, Russia, inflation, oil prices. I'm learning.  

There is also a $TICK chart. I'm not as familiar with exactly what it tracks but in a nutshell it tracks how many stocks in the S&P went down in that timeframe vs how many went up. Some traders watch it and when it hits -800 or so they will start buying. I used to watch it for a short time but found I was just looking at too many different things. I think the ranges are -1000 to +1000. 0 means there is a balance

But most days traders watch the VIX. The VIX has no real dollar value and by default will go to 0. When it gets low enough they will do a reverse split to get it to about $50-80 then it will slowly fade closer to 0 then start the cycle over again. I have heard there are any traders that short it after a reverse split

randy56

Dream_Inn said:

Interesting article on where all these expensive yachts are going.  You guys just need to get better at crypto!😁

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/young-crypto-investors-tech-entrepreneurs-fuel-yacht-industry-boom-121533446.html

They do not have to be worried those mega yacht's will deplete their cash.

Lake_Bum

All this talk, and most likely NOT speculation that the Fed will be raising interest rates is tanking Stocks and Crypto both.  Then....Russia invaded Ukraine today.  Everything is plummeting. 
  I'm prepped and ready to buy on what is  probably the biggest dip since housing market tanked in 08.  Now just waiting on the bottom...

boatman37

Lake_Bum said:

All this talk, and most likely NOT speculation that the Fed will be raising interest rates is tanking Stocks and Crypto both.  Then....Russia invaded Ukraine today.  Everything is plummeting. 
  I'm prepped and ready to buy on what is  probably the biggest dip since housing market tanked in 08.  Now just waiting on the bottom...

You might be right. Futures are down 500pts right now. I don't put alot of weight in futures the night before but when it's 500 pts in this environment I pay attention.

Handymans342

Did anyone buy oil when it was negative 90???

Dream_Inn

Handymans342 said:

Did anyone buy oil when it was negative 90???

So, I actually tried to but it seemed difficult to buy the actual commodity.  You could somehow buy the next months' futures.  It was somewhat of a learning curve for me and I never figured it out.  So, instead I bought SUN (Sunoco) & SLB (make tools used in drilling oil).

I will be closely watching market today and plan to do some more buying.  I'm starting to get near my end of dry powder. 

randy56

Lots of red today, We will see $100 oil soon enough.

Handymans342

Should we be buying Ruble futures?

J3ff

randy56 said:

Lots of red today, We will see $100 oil soon enough.

was 110 today, no?? Guess I'm switching to taking a golfcart to work... 

Dream_Inn

Yeah, fuel will be fun on the boats this summer.  & I have some long trips planned this summer as well.  I guess it's only money, gotta spend it somewhere.

randy56

Yup, get ready for $5 gas. Dream you will have to easy on the throttle, this summer.  

Lake_Bum

I feel the biggest dip since the housing market crashed everything in 08/09 is coming soon, potentially next week when the FED is planning to officially announce the rate hike.  Unless your head is in the sand, you have been hearing about crypto a lot in the news lately.  NOW is the time to get in!  

I'll expand on some of the huge benefits of using crypto . com platform.  They offer a crypto Visa card.  It is NOT a credit card, and there isn't even a credit report pulled when you get one.  It is a self-funded debit card, meaning, there's only money on it, if you put it there.  The base model one, has no real benefits, but as soon as you get to the next level up, there are HUGE benefits. You get free Spotify music service every month, but the true benefits are the percentages you receive on staking your funds.  There are a couple of funds, that are solid, proven, and in the top 20 crypto's that I am getting 10% interest weekly returns on.  That rivals a Roth IRA return.  NOW is a great time to get in....the bottom is coming soon.  Of course, it will be bottoming on stocks as well, but I am choosing to bet on crypto, I feel it is the future of currency.  

If you are interested, I can give you my referral link, and you'll get $25 bucks in Crypto just for joining! That would be in the CRO coin, and if you get the Visa eventually, I would get $25 also.   Staking solid funds is a no-brainer to me.   I just got involved into Crypto in October, and I'm doing very well already! 

*edit* here's my referral link. I would also happily share a short list of a few very solid, proven funds to start out with.

Use my referral link https://crypto.com/app/vkfegvwjx9 to sign up for Crypto.com and we both get $25 USD 

Michael T

I'm too old for crypto at this point as I am now (Canada) having to withdraw funds via government policy. But for my younger family members I strongly advise exposure to crypto and like the recommendation of @Lake_Bum. If you are 65 or younger I'd get in.

MarkB

For those that have 5 minutes on your hands and want a laugh from a parody on crypto, watch this ... but note, some swearing in the video ... really funny though:

https://youtu.be/YHjYt6Jm5j8

Dream_Inn

Well, I sure hope I don't jinx myself by saying I like the way the market is going today.  I gobbled up a bunch of stocks yesterday morning.  Particularly in NIO and AMAT.  I went all out in NIO thinking it is going to hit the HK market tomorrow, without any dilution, just using floating shares.  Hong Kong will surely gobble it up and they have more restrictions on shorting.  Which is good for long term buyers.  They also have two new SUV models coming out, one this month.  I'm hoping this stock alone will buy my next boat!    I also added some more this week in VTI and CIM.  I may pull out of some of my oil stocks soon as I know I can't time the top, but this has been a good ride for them.

randy56

Yea they are calling this a rally today, but we lost more than that earlier this week. At lease oil is backing down. Took 5 tanks of gas to pull my boat down here. So going home could be expensive. 

randy56

GME up $20 aftermarket

Dream_Inn

It's been a crazy week or 2 weeks in the market for me.  I made back almost all of last year's gains in just a few days.  I'm thinking I'll pull some profits out just to reinvest in a couple different things.

Lake_Bum

I'm really kicking butt in Crypto all across the board.  SO many different moves happening around the world with it.  It is being picked up in quite a few countries, adopting Bitcoin as their currency.  If anyone is looking for the next big one.....look at XRP.  It will be the technology used on pretty much ALL bank transfers in the future.  Getting away from the ACH transfer systems. 

randy56

tlry up $1.69 today big gain, Monday looks good. 

Dream_Inn

Well, I almost hate to bring this topic back to the topic.  Sure is a crazy time in the market!  I'm almost ready to stop looking at my stocks for a while.  Almost pulled out big time at end of day yesterday taking minimal losses since it came up so much.  I guess I may just have to keep working longer!  I may be like Handy and work till I'm old.

randy56

Be patient grasshopper, you only lose when you sell. 

Dream_Inn

randy56 said:

Be patient grasshopper, you only lose when you sell. 

Oh, I agree completely.  I've learned that lesson the hard way.  After 25÷ years of investing in my 401k, I pulled on way down in 2020, first time ever.  Thought it was unique and too many unknowns.  I actually did good on the pull out.  Problem is, of course, timing, and when to get back in.  I missed a lot of ride back up.  Not doing that crap anymore. 

J3ff

Dream_Inn said:

randy56 said:

Be patient grasshopper, you only lose when you sell. 

Oh, I agree completely.  I've learned that lesson the hard way.  After 25÷ years of investing in my 401k, I pulled on way down in 2020, first time ever.  Thought it was unique and too many unknowns.  I actually did good on the pull out.  Problem is, of course, timing, and when to get back in.  I missed a lot of ride back up.  Not doing that crap anymore. 

I'm kicking myself. I moved my entire 401k to a safe place on Dec 15th... and then asked around and people told me YOU CANT TIME THE MARKET..

We'll it's down 60k as of yesterday because I put it back where it was the last week of Dec.

I def moved it OUT at the right time. I guess the question would be, would I put it back in at the right time.. who knows.