Stock Market

randy56

Crash.

halifax212

YIKES!

boatman37

We hit our initial target. That was last years low. Early this year we broke last years highs so to complete the outside year we had to break last years lows. Once you break one direction then get 50% through the previous candle back the other direction you will usually complete the outside candle. That is done. Doesn't mean we are done crashing though.

MarkB

boatman37 said:

Trader friend of mine just posted this.

Ouch ... nice fractal.

boatman37

Got weekly reversals on SPY and QQQ today so I'll be keeping a close watch next week to see if we can hold these levels

Dream_Inn

Definitely one heck of a week for me last week.  I think it is just part of the tide and will cycle back down soon.  But in it longer term, doesn't matter much to me right now. I did take some small profit though.

randy56

Was up 1.6% last thursday and friday but still not enough to recover from two months of loss. I have a nephew that lives near the Tesla plant in Austin TX. Beware the plant is setting idle, no one to work.  Dust piling up. No cars are being made.

MarkB

randy56 said:

Was up 1.6% last thursday and friday but still not enough to recover from two months of loss. I have a nephew that lives near the Tesla plant in Austin TX. Beware the plant is setting idle, no one to work.  Dust piling up. No cars are being made.

They on strike or something?

randy56

@MarkB Nope, they cannot find anyone to work. In Austin.  He said there was a field full of cars sitting outside without doors on them. You know I saw on CNN about a week ago Musk said he was not sure if he could keep Tesla out of bankruptcy. Didn't know what was meant by that until talking with my nephew, he works for a company that provides them fork trucks.

MarkB

randy56 said:

@MarkB Nope, they cannot find anyone to work. In Austin.  He said there was a field full of cars sitting outside without doors on them. You know I saw on CNN about a week ago Musk said he was not sure if he could keep Tesla out of bankruptcy. Didn't know what was meant by that until talking with my nephew, he works for a company that provides them fork trucks.

What is everyone doing?? On unemployment or something??

randy56

Austin TX, had a huge migration of people and company's from California. In the last few years.  Not enough people to fill all the jobs. His company is paying head hunters to find mechanic's 10 k. They also started a program where they are hiring fresh high school grads. To train them, and paying them $22 per hour. To start. 

Lake_Bum

With yet another rate hike announcement fast approaching, Crypto is on the fall.  I have learned that the "trend" is to drop drop drop, up until the day of announcement, and then things start to rise after flatlining.  In such a tough market, things like this have really paid off for me, doing a DCA on the way down, then pulling the trigger on a slightly larger bag the day before announcement.  
I'm not a Stock guy, but I would bet they follow the similar pattern.  

oscar1

YYZRC said:

Is mortgage interest tax deductible in the US?

yes

boatman37

Lake_Bum said:

With yet another rate hike announcement fast approaching, Crypto is on the fall.  I have learned that the "trend" is to drop drop drop, up until the day of announcement, and then things start to rise after flatlining.  In such a tough market, things like this have really paid off for me, doing a DCA on the way down, then pulling the trigger on a slightly larger bag the day before announcement.  
I'm not a Stock guy, but I would bet they follow the similar pattern.  

Not really a rhyme or reason on stocks. One company will get crushed on earnings and the stock will pop and another company can beat earnings and the price drops. AAPL used to be a good one to buy about 3-4 weeks before earnings then sell the day before earnings. Same with any big announcements. That had been a pretty reliable strategy but lately hasn't been as consistent. I only trade charts and actually try to avoid news events...lol. Charts don't lie although they aren't 100% either

boatman37

QQQ gave a monthly reversal. SPY is close so may get the monthly reversal on SPY next week. I will be looking to start buying but will be careful with my stops too. There was a lot of SPY puts buying today for later this year so could be hedging or big money knows something. I don't typically pay attention to this but it was pointed out to me today. They were all November and December puts

Dream_Inn

Well, it's been a while since we talked about this topic.  For me, probably good reason.  As a long term investor, it sure hasn't been good.  I just figure it's gotta turn back around, even slowly, before I need to touch the money.  I did start buying a little bit the last couple days.  I've also took a few small gains, then invested right back in when the stock went back down a week or so later.  Certainly didn't make much, but better than nothing.  I think I'm down 25-30% from my high in Nov/Dec last year. 

YYZRC

I’m down about 10% but I only hold dividend stocks and I’m long term like you. Will invest the dividends and wait for things to come back. 

What I find more interesting is how hard the boat market seems to have collapsed. Is that happening down there too or just up here? Obviously a seasonal impact but I am seeing boats at 25% less than this time last year. 

Liberty44140

It’s definitely softened a bit here. Also noticing marine mechanics much more available than a year or several months ago, even the really good ones.

Willhound

We pulled some gains back into cash about 6 weeks ago, locked in an average 24% gain in the last two years. Waiting to jump back in but watching energy markets as the war in Ukraine and inflation are going to likely mean increases in energy stocks. Eyeing some natural gas companies. Unfortunately there may be issues in Europe this winter but will mean some increased values.

randy56

You guy's are doing much better than me, I guess I did not choose wisely. ***k the stock market, Down + 50% from a year ago. I'm buying some CD's this week 4.05% for one year Edward Jones. 

Hurricane will drop the market, as any time the wind blows. 

Europe will have trouble this winter, staying warm. 

boatman37

I haven't even looked at my 401 so no idea how much I'm down in there. My IRA is about 50% cash. It was about 75% cash but my long term holds are down quite a bit but not concerned. My day trading account hasn't been touched in a few weeks. I went back to trading futures again. I really like trading futures but I'm using a new broker for it (ninja trader) so still getting used to that.

Michael T

There is soooo much money sitting on the sidelines at the moment. Fund managers are like lemmings once one starts to run they all will. Once one starts to buy they all will.

November and the end of the trading year is coming. I bet few fund managers will want to be holding bags of cash. Time will tell.

The day is not far off when where will be a succession of 700+  point gains. Once that starts all the big money will come running. I agree that now would be the time to put $100K or so into the market if you have cash in hand.

You don't have to get onto the elevator in the very basement. Getting in on the second floor riding it to the basement then staying on it until it hits the 20th floor isn't a bad deal, in my opinion.

We were 80% equity 20% fixed. We cleared some deadwood to take capital losses to offset capital gains then rebalanced to 90-10. I do like a mix of dividend and ETFs.

Not the time to panic. 

Yes, boat sales here have dropped noticeably where I boat. Used cars have gone up 15% in the last  six months. Sold our Yamaha jet boat last year for $10K over purchase price. I hope the buyer didn't get a loan as its dropped 20% since then. The used Mustang convertible we bought has appreciated 10% . Car lots are empty. Dealers who seem to have vehicles for sale are all pick-up trucks. Dealers are surviving on their service departments. No one can get employees. It's just nuts!

boatman37

I look for us to sell off the rest of the week with the end of month coming. Typically the last day of the month is pretty ugly.

MarkB

Yeah, I think this gets corrected when everyone knows they are getting a great deal, buy, and hold. There's still too many scared people out there. Anyone feel that this is the deal of the century yet? I don't ... I think there's more downside to come.  American dollar has lift off though ... people obviously liquidating their assets to USD.

boatman37

Yep. There is so much bad with this economy right now that I can't see the bottom being near yet. Traditionally September is a bad month for stocks so people may be waiting for October but if we do get a reversal will it hold?

Michael T

There are two investing principles that have helped me tremendously. One - "Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered" aka don't get greedy. Two - it is certainly possible to time markets - particularly ones that have as stark and defined a profile as this one. I have timed markets very well three times now. Now put one and two together. Here's what you get. Many acquaintances have tried to wait for almost the absolute bottom of a stock market to re-invest (aka greedy). It never turned-out as well as it could have for them. The difference between a five and six figure gain, is due, in my opinion, to excess greed (aka time it in a smart manner). In my opinion they broke both principles. Why? because, in my opinion, it's absolutely a fool's game trying to wait for the lowest point in a stock market decline to re-invest, because when the upward trajectory starts and accelerates ( often vert rapidly) only the really big boys will be able to get back in fast enough. Right now, the stock market has declined enough for anyone to make really GOOD money by investing and waiting. There is said to be 7.6 TRILLION dollars on the side lines. That amount of money can NOT stay in cash. This ain't rocket science guys. As I have said, get in before the market hits dead bottom. Yes, on paper, your portfolio will drop as the market hits dead bottom. So what! Just wait, as it will surge past the point at which you you bought-in and keep accelerating. I have likened it to getting on the elevator on the second floor, ride it down to the the basement, don't panic and wait for it to shoot up to the higher floors. Steve once commented on my ability to purchase new Rinkers. Guess how that happened? You live in the United States. You think it won't recover? You want to bet against the resourcefulness and ingenuity of the American people and your nation as a whole? That would be breaking my principle number Three - don't be stupid. 

Willhound

Could not have said it better @Michael T
I would only add, depending on your risk tolerance, look at solid companies with good long term track records and preferably one that pays dividends and is trading lower not because there's anything wrong with the company, but because of all the nervous Nellie's out there that pulled out. Over a medium to long term time frame you will never regret it. Also remember that although a lot of us are investing and saving for retirement, you still need growth in your portfolio after retirement to keep up with inflation and keep a steady income until the end. At almost 60 I'm not investing for the next 3 to 4 years, I'm still investing for the next 30.

MarkB

There's two ways to decide on when to invest, try and guess when to enter on the way down, or look for confirmation of the bottom, and then buy it on the way up. Both tactics rarely mean you are buying the bottom, but buying on the way up is most likely the safer approach.

Michael T

Mark, if I understand you correctly I would respectfully disagree. I have watched too many family members and friends try to wait to buy at the bottom and as you said end-up buying on the way up. When that was happening I would get frantic calls saying they were trying to buy but they couldn't get in at a certain price point and the buy rates were escalating faster than they could predict or possibly afford. My only advice was to decide what they could possibly tolerate and proceed - as what other choice did they have?

At a certain point in any market sell-off there should be a time when investors can reasonably predict the market will not go much lower unless their is a fundamental and pervasive restructuring of the economy at which point all bets are off, think (1929-30). My belief, in our present situation, is that will not happen. If I am correct, we should be close to the bottom now, hence my elevator analogy.

Yes @Willhound I really like dividend paying stocks and bonds. My American stocks generate the US funds I use to travel when there is a disparity in US/CDN money. I'll be 72 in December so in Canada I have already had to start withdrawing money from my RRSPs (which go to RIFFs) and yes I too will be an investor for life having timed our profile to the time the Admiral reaches 99 years of age. Up to that point she will not have to alter our present lifestyle - after that she may have to be a greeter at Walmart! 

What I have said is of course just my opinion and I am not a certified financial planner!

Dream_Inn

I'll say one thing that worked for me over the years in my retirement savings is just to keep buying each pay check.  It's automatic, don't think about it, and over time you get a nice cost average.  As far as timing, I never get it right.  Back to my retirement, I had to think too much back when ole Covid started and I thought I was smart and pulled out well before that big dip.  But, as Michael stated, how do you know when it is going back up and gonna stay up.  I kept thinking with all the money that gov't was dumping in, we would crash (yeah, I was right, just happening now, not back then).  Of course I finally slowly put back in, and now it is crashing it down.  The unfortunate part is I also got myself into stock playing and that is all down 25% too.  Oh well, gonna leave it ride and keep my rule of putting more money in and cost averaging.  Fortunately I'm able to put a good amount into my retirment (although I still like playing my stocks too).