Stock Market

randy56

Up 5% but that's not enough yet. but an improvement.

boatman37

I don't like the idea of just throwing money in when something drops. Many people have blown out their accts trying to catch a falling knife. I wait until I see a reversal. If you try to catch bottoms and tops you will go broke.

That said, we got that reversal on the daily chart on both QQQ and SPY today. I'm looking for a reversal on the weekly charts now but will keep tight stops if it pulls back down. I just did a youtube video detailing this today. SPY above 406.41 gives a reversal on the weekly chart and QQQ needs above 309.35 to give a weekly reversal. Both of these levels will get my attention

P.S.-I am not a licensed financial advisor, this is just my own assessment based on years of day trading

https://youtu.be/yv6cdiJB-eo

Michael T

This IS  an opportunity. This CAN be timed and that would be now. You don't have to get on the elevator in the basement. If you get on the second floor you'll still get a great ride to the 10 floor. Trying to time the absolute bottom IS nuts but getting in after a 5K drop is a sure deal unless there is a total long term economic collapse which this is NOT and when it takes-off it will be hard to get on fast enough. Yes pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered is a very good guideline! Otherwise if you are at a point where you are not still actively buying (retirement or age) then just wait this out. It WILL come back there is just too much money on the sidelines with nowhere to go. Nervous investors, fearful fund managers and a lunatic are causing this. Patience indeed grasshopper!

Dream_Inn

I need a few more days like Friday!  It at least made my weekend better.

boatman37

We got the weekly reversal on SPY today that I mentioned but haven't got it on QQQ yet. I went ahead and added a couple of shares of SPY to my longer term account and also bought 1 August 450 SPY call and will add as I see fit. I do have stops in place for these just below the $400 level. If I get stopped out from these levels then I will assume this still isn't the bottom and I will wait to get back in on the next reversal I see. I plan to add QQQ once we get the weekly reversal on it. We need to break $309.35 to get that reversal. We closed today at 306.17 with a high of 306.56. 

MarkB

boatman37 said:

I don't like the idea of just throwing money in when something drops. Many people have blown out their accts trying to catch a falling knife. I wait until I see a reversal. If you try to catch bottoms and tops you will go broke.

That said, we got that reversal on the daily chart on both QQQ and SPY today. I'm looking for a reversal on the weekly charts now but will keep tight stops if it pulls back down. I just did a youtube video detailing this today. SPY above 406.41 gives a reversal on the weekly chart and QQQ needs above 309.35 to give a weekly reversal. Both of these levels will get my attention

P.S.-I am not a licensed financial advisor, this is just my own assessment based on years of day trading

https://youtu.be/yv6cdiJB-eo

For sure, wait for confirmation ... when I bought LTC, it wicked down, and then was bought up, and steadied ... finding support. That's the point I start laddering in ... but there's no guarantees the support won't fail again ... and there's also no guarantees it will drop further.  So the best method in my mind is to ladder in buys and ladder out sales.

It's like winning the lottery to try and get the absolute bottom, and I've seen guys waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting ... keep waiting for that better bottom ... and completely miss out on the mark up.  That is just as bad as waiting, waiting, waiting for a higher top to sell ... both are mistakes.

There will never be a moment where you enter or exit and don't have a bit of nervousness and uncertainty whether you are doing it at the right time ... so we need to change the strategy. You have to have a plan, and buy a range of prices ... some people may flip that and say, you're trying to catch a fall knife ... but it's actually not that at all. It's a controlled entry strategy, which carries risk ... yes. But every move in the market carries risk, and there is no reward without risk.

J3ff

So what are you buying? Doge or Bitcoin

Lake_Bum

BTC, ETH, MATIC, DOT, ADA, CRO, SOL, LINK.......there's a good starting point.  None are risky, all have proven the test of time. 

MarkB

Lake_Bum said:

BTC, ETH, MATIC, DOT, ADA, CRO, SOL, LINK.......there's a good starting point.  None are risky, all have proven the test of time. 

LTC has huge upside ... and it is taken seriously by investors ... code is similar to BTC, but a lighter, faster version.  Seen as the silver to BTC's gold.

Lake_Bum

MarkB said:

Lake_Bum said:

BTC, ETH, MATIC, DOT, ADA, CRO, SOL, LINK.......there's a good starting point.  None are risky, all have proven the test of time. 

LTC has huge upside ... and it is taken seriously by investors ... code is similar to BTC, but a lighter, faster version.  Seen as the silver to BTC's gold.

LTC is good too.  Definitely one to put into the diversification list. I don't have any right now.  I have a small handful of "wild cards" as well. But nothing like Shiba or Doge haha. 

boatman37

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

I don't like the idea of just throwing money in when something drops. Many people have blown out their accts trying to catch a falling knife. I wait until I see a reversal. If you try to catch bottoms and tops you will go broke.

That said, we got that reversal on the daily chart on both QQQ and SPY today. I'm looking for a reversal on the weekly charts now but will keep tight stops if it pulls back down. I just did a youtube video detailing this today. SPY above 406.41 gives a reversal on the weekly chart and QQQ needs above 309.35 to give a weekly reversal. Both of these levels will get my attention

P.S.-I am not a licensed financial advisor, this is just my own assessment based on years of day trading

https://youtu.be/yv6cdiJB-eo

For sure, wait for confirmation ... when I bought LTC, it wicked down, and then was bought up, and steadied ... finding support. That's the point I start laddering in ... but there's no guarantees the support won't fail again ... and there's also no guarantees it will drop further.  So the best method in my mind is to ladder in buys and ladder out sales.

It's like winning the lottery to try and get the absolute bottom, and I've seen guys waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting ... keep waiting for that better bottom ... and completely miss out on the mark up.  That is just as bad as waiting, waiting, waiting for a higher top to sell ... both are mistakes.

There will never be a moment where you enter or exit and don't have a bit of nervousness and uncertainty whether you are doing it at the right time ... so we need to change the strategy. You have to have a plan, and buy a range of prices ... some people may flip that and say, you're trying to catch a fall knife ... but it's actually not that at all. It's a controlled entry strategy, which carries risk ... yes. But every move in the market carries risk, and there is no reward without risk.

Agreed to a point but I won't hold forever waiting for that reversal that may never come. I have done that too many times to care to admit to...lol. You buy in at 300 and it drops to 100 it might take years to get back to even and the opportunity costs eats up alot of potential gains those funds could have made. I dipped my toes in SPY yesterday but today it failed those levels so I got back out for a small loss. I'm still holding a few shares as my base that I plan to always hold no matter what but for any more that I add I will stop out if those levels don't hold. Not saying other strategies down work and not criticizing others strategies but I'm confident in my ability to read reversals so not afraid of waiting until I get those triggers. I also understand most don't have the experience reading charts that I do since I literally look at charts about 6 hours a day M-F

Handymans342

Going to be another bad day

randy56

@boatman37 Cannot imagine spending 6 hours a day with my face in the screen. Not for me, but good for you. The stock market is difficult, and complicated.  You cannot out play the big money players. As they have the funds to move the market, and manipulate the market. To there advantage, with bots trading for them. The bots do the algorithm's and trade quickly, and often. It's easy to see looking at charts, of the trades especially before market and after market. Where most of us do not have the ability to trade during that time. 

MarkB

boatman37 said:

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

I don't like the idea of just throwing money in when something drops. Many people have blown out their accts trying to catch a falling knife. I wait until I see a reversal. If you try to catch bottoms and tops you will go broke.

That said, we got that reversal on the daily chart on both QQQ and SPY today. I'm looking for a reversal on the weekly charts now but will keep tight stops if it pulls back down. I just did a youtube video detailing this today. SPY above 406.41 gives a reversal on the weekly chart and QQQ needs above 309.35 to give a weekly reversal. Both of these levels will get my attention

P.S.-I am not a licensed financial advisor, this is just my own assessment based on years of day trading

https://youtu.be/yv6cdiJB-eo

For sure, wait for confirmation ... when I bought LTC, it wicked down, and then was bought up, and steadied ... finding support. That's the point I start laddering in ... but there's no guarantees the support won't fail again ... and there's also no guarantees it will drop further.  So the best method in my mind is to ladder in buys and ladder out sales.

It's like winning the lottery to try and get the absolute bottom, and I've seen guys waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting ... keep waiting for that better bottom ... and completely miss out on the mark up.  That is just as bad as waiting, waiting, waiting for a higher top to sell ... both are mistakes.

There will never be a moment where you enter or exit and don't have a bit of nervousness and uncertainty whether you are doing it at the right time ... so we need to change the strategy. You have to have a plan, and buy a range of prices ... some people may flip that and say, you're trying to catch a fall knife ... but it's actually not that at all. It's a controlled entry strategy, which carries risk ... yes. But every move in the market carries risk, and there is no reward without risk.

Agreed to a point but I won't hold forever waiting for that reversal that may never come. I have done that too many times to care to admit to...lol. You buy in at 300 and it drops to 100 it might take years to get back to even and the opportunity costs eats up alot of potential gains those funds could have made. I dipped my toes in SPY yesterday but today it failed those levels so I got back out for a small loss. I'm still holding a few shares as my base that I plan to always hold no matter what but for any more that I add I will stop out if those levels don't hold. Not saying other strategies down work and not criticizing others strategies but I'm confident in my ability to read reversals so not afraid of waiting until I get those triggers. I also understand most don't have the experience reading charts that I do since I literally look at charts about 6 hours a day M-F

Oh for sure, I agree. It's about planning ... buy in at 300, prepared for it to go down to key support at 250 ... if that support breaks ... stops have to trigger ... and sell that stuff to avoid a major loss.  Stop would typically be 5% lower than key support, for example. So in this case say 235 or something ... so that defines the risk ... 18% downside ... the upside better be at least 2x that ... I often look for 3x so the reward/risk ratio is about 2.5 to 3 or better.

Also depends on the time frame ... I swing trade ... so I'm looking more long term, I might move in and out over 1 month or more ... therefore I'm looking for bigger swings ... not making money over a 2% move ... I don't have that much time on my hands to day trade.

boatman37

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

MarkB said:

boatman37 said:

I don't like the idea of just throwing money in when something drops. Many people have blown out their accts trying to catch a falling knife. I wait until I see a reversal. If you try to catch bottoms and tops you will go broke.

That said, we got that reversal on the daily chart on both QQQ and SPY today. I'm looking for a reversal on the weekly charts now but will keep tight stops if it pulls back down. I just did a youtube video detailing this today. SPY above 406.41 gives a reversal on the weekly chart and QQQ needs above 309.35 to give a weekly reversal. Both of these levels will get my attention

P.S.-I am not a licensed financial advisor, this is just my own assessment based on years of day trading

https://youtu.be/yv6cdiJB-eo

For sure, wait for confirmation ... when I bought LTC, it wicked down, and then was bought up, and steadied ... finding support. That's the point I start laddering in ... but there's no guarantees the support won't fail again ... and there's also no guarantees it will drop further.  So the best method in my mind is to ladder in buys and ladder out sales.

It's like winning the lottery to try and get the absolute bottom, and I've seen guys waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting ... keep waiting for that better bottom ... and completely miss out on the mark up.  That is just as bad as waiting, waiting, waiting for a higher top to sell ... both are mistakes.

There will never be a moment where you enter or exit and don't have a bit of nervousness and uncertainty whether you are doing it at the right time ... so we need to change the strategy. You have to have a plan, and buy a range of prices ... some people may flip that and say, you're trying to catch a fall knife ... but it's actually not that at all. It's a controlled entry strategy, which carries risk ... yes. But every move in the market carries risk, and there is no reward without risk.

Agreed to a point but I won't hold forever waiting for that reversal that may never come. I have done that too many times to care to admit to...lol. You buy in at 300 and it drops to 100 it might take years to get back to even and the opportunity costs eats up alot of potential gains those funds could have made. I dipped my toes in SPY yesterday but today it failed those levels so I got back out for a small loss. I'm still holding a few shares as my base that I plan to always hold no matter what but for any more that I add I will stop out if those levels don't hold. Not saying other strategies down work and not criticizing others strategies but I'm confident in my ability to read reversals so not afraid of waiting until I get those triggers. I also understand most don't have the experience reading charts that I do since I literally look at charts about 6 hours a day M-F

Oh for sure, I agree. It's about planning ... buy in at 300, prepared for it to go down to key support at 250 ... if that support breaks ... stops have to trigger ... and sell that stuff to avoid a major loss.  Stop would typically be 5% lower than key support, for example. So in this case say 235 or something ... so that defines the risk ... 18% downside ... the upside better be at least 2x that ... I often look for 3x so the reward/risk ratio is about 2.5 to 3 or better.

Also depends on the time frame ... I swing trade ... so I'm looking more long term, I might move in and out over 1 month or more ... therefore I'm looking for bigger swings ... not making money over a 2% move ... I don't have that much time on my hands to day trade.

Very hard to swing trade right now and I'm not great at swing trading anyway...lol. I do better in the 5 minute to 2 hour trades...lol. I work from home so I'm at my desk anyway for 8 hours. I have 3 screens for my job and 5 for trading so 8 monitors on my desk...lol. But I use alerts. I glance at charts all day but I wait for alerts to start getting my attention. I have a few scripts I created that auto trade for me too. They don't do as good of a job as real eyes would but it catches trades I might miss cause I'm busy with work.

boatman37

randy56 said:

@boatman37 Cannot imagine spending 6 hours a day with my face in the screen. Not for me, but good for you. The stock market is difficult, and complicated.  You cannot out play the big money players. As they have the funds to move the market, and manipulate the market. To there advantage, with bots trading for them. The bots do the algorithm's and trade quickly, and often. It's easy to see looking at charts, of the trades especially before market and after market. Where most of us do not have the ability to trade during that time. 

You are correct about the bots but I use them to my advantage. Algorithms need 3 things to function. What to do, when to do it and how to do it. The what is the ticker, the when is whatever triggers it, the how is 'buy the ask', etc. I buy on candle breaks, pure price action. Inside candle breaks are one of my favorites and you want full timeframe continuity. Some people may buy when the 15 minute chart looks good. I look for green on the 30m, 60m, and daily as well. That means all timeframes are buying. That increases your odds. If the 15m is green but the 60 is red then there is conflict and your odds aren't as good. It's not foolproof. I got slapped in the face today...lol. But my fault. The markets were choppy today and I should have sat on my hands but tried to outsmart the market and got stopped out almost every time. First time in awhile I have done that but it happens. Just have to get my mindset right and get back at it tomorrow

randy56

"Outsmart the market" I have not been to successful at it.

MarkB

randy56 said:

"Outsmart the market" I have not been to successful at it.

Most people are not successful at it.

I think the most common mistake made by people trading the market is they don't understand at all who they are up against.

It's simple ... WALL STREET wants your money. It's YOU against Wall street. Yes, Wall St with all their cash to buy info, to move the market, algorithms ... even impacting/printing news to drive the market ... it is that Giant against little old you.

THAT's why it's hard to make money.

The only thing I know works is to try and figure out what Wall Street wants to do, and be that little sucker fish on the side of the great white shark ... just enjoy the little tiny pieces that are left behind as the great white devours everyone else. Don't get in the way of the shark ... don't go against the shark.

boatman37

MarkB said:

randy56 said:

"Outsmart the market" I have not been to successful at it.

Most people are not successful at it.

I think the most common mistake made by people trading the market is they don't understand at all who they are up against.

It's simple ... WALL STREET wants your money. It's YOU against Wall street. Yes, Wall St with all their cash to buy info, to move the market, algorithms ... even impacting/printing news to drive the market ... it is that Giant against little old you.

THAT's why it's hard to make money.

The only thing I know works is to try and figure out what Wall Street wants to do, and be that little sucker fish on the side of the great white shark ... just enjoy the little tiny pieces that are left behind as the great white devours everyone else. Don't get in the way of the shark ... don't go against the shark.

Exactly. None of us are going to outsmart the market or big money but we can use that to accomplish our goal. Just like you said, be that little fish beside the shark and grab some crumbs.

I created a script to automatically buy and sell certain options contracts when certain conditions are met. It works about 50% of the time but my risk/reward on it is usually pretty good. Today it bought SPY puts at 10:15 this morning for $285 and sold at 12:00 for $428 (50%). It actually hit $697 at 1:15 but my script sold out of it before that. Yesterday it didn't work out so well...lol

randy56

Could have not said it any better. look's like a long hold. To recovery. 

Handymans342

I have lost 18g but the dividends have increased

boatman37

We got weekly reversals on both SPY and QQQ. I'm gonna start adding here but won't be afraid to stop out if it starts going back down. The good news is Tuesday is the end of the month and we are at monthly highs also so if we have a good day Tuesday and Wednesday then we should get the monthly reversals pretty quickly. These are the things I look for when trading price action and if you go back and look at what happens when we get a monthly reversal to the upside. But again, we also have alot of potential news topics that could push us right back down

Dream_Inn

I agree, things change quickly. I made back half of my losses between Thursday and Friday.  I'd love to see a good week this week.

MarkB

boatman37 said:

MarkB said:

randy56 said:

"Outsmart the market" I have not been to successful at it.

Most people are not successful at it.

I think the most common mistake made by people trading the market is they don't understand at all who they are up against.

It's simple ... WALL STREET wants your money. It's YOU against Wall street. Yes, Wall St with all their cash to buy info, to move the market, algorithms ... even impacting/printing news to drive the market ... it is that Giant against little old you.

THAT's why it's hard to make money.

The only thing I know works is to try and figure out what Wall Street wants to do, and be that little sucker fish on the side of the great white shark ... just enjoy the little tiny pieces that are left behind as the great white devours everyone else. Don't get in the way of the shark ... don't go against the shark.

Exactly. None of us are going to outsmart the market or big money but we can use that to accomplish our goal. Just like you said, be that little fish beside the shark and grab some crumbs.

I created a script to automatically buy and sell certain options contracts when certain conditions are met. It works about 50% of the time but my risk/reward on it is usually pretty good. Today it bought SPY puts at 10:15 this morning for $285 and sold at 12:00 for $428 (50%). It actually hit $697 at 1:15 but my script sold out of it before that. Yesterday it didn't work out so well...lol

Wow, that is great. I'm sure with more testing you can get that accuracy up. If you can get it to 2/3rds the time ... man, you might get rich, with proper risk management, of course.

J3ff

Crypto up today!!

boatman37

boatman37 said:

We got weekly reversals on both SPY and QQQ. I'm gonna start adding here but won't be afraid to stop out if it starts going back down. The good news is Tuesday is the end of the month and we are at monthly highs also so if we have a good day Tuesday and Wednesday then we should get the monthly reversals pretty quickly. These are the things I look for when trading price action and if you go back and look at what happens when we get a monthly reversal to the upside. But again, we also have alot of potential news topics that could push us right back down

Actually I think I'll wait until we get the monthly reversal to start jumping in. If the market has any strength that should happen before the end of this week but if this is a false alert we should start seeing downside early on. The monthly chart will have a much bigger impact on where we go. Even given that we could only see a few weeks of upside then they drop it again but will see. My risk management game is pretty strong so as I said, I'l stop out if need be.

Looking at futures right now they are pretty flat but I'm sure there still isn't much volume

boatman37

Market hasn't got any traction yet. Seems we get bad economic news every morning. CPI, jobs report, etc.

randy56

Yes, market regressed today, and add inflation and violence.  looking at the fear index, it's above average. 

boatman37

Yep. VIX is still up there. I heard one successful trader say they won't go long if the VIX is above 20

Lake_Bum

I am still accumulating XRP and ETH on any days they are down significantly.  The Etherium merge/upgrade is still on track for August.  ETH 2.0 basically means it is going from proof of work, to proof of stake.  The price should jump a LOT after the transition to ETH 2.0.   This bear market is a great time to accumulate.