Stock Market

Michael T

All will be well. I have been in this "game" long enough to know equilibrium will return. Only time I have ever timed the market was that last big correction. That one I got right. I'll wait this one out. 6 trillion dollars waiting to go somewhere. 

Dream_Inn

MT, you are right.  I was pretty good at just putting more in and letting it ride and not really watching, but maybe rebalancing once a year (for my 401k & wife's 403).  Then Covid hit & for the first time, I got nervous and messed up.  I'm over it now for sure, but learned.  Since Dec 2020, I've been heavily investing our cash in the market, especially since we had gotten some inheritance that was invested in the market.  Unfortunately the great gains that we had gotten last year are now losses, but I've kept investing, knowing in another year or two I'll be happy about it.  None of it is needed until we buy our next boat, so we are looking long term still for now.

boatman37

Yep...market will come back in time. Just hard to say when that time might be. I'll be looking for a reversal on the monthly charts to get in but will be careful with stops too

Handymans342

boatman37 said:

Yep...market will come back in time. Just hard to say when that time might be. I'll be looking for a reversal on the monthly charts to get in but will be careful with stops too

It won't come back until 11-5-24. LOL

Lake_Bum

I timed the dip pretty good I guess on Crypto in January.  I'm pretty much even right now with the current situation.  I bought more 3 days ago, and I'm probably buying more next week.  Just going to wait it out a little longer, and see what happens. 
There are now two 401k's that you can buy Bitcoin on, many more to follow! 

boatman37

Handymans342 said:

boatman37 said:

Yep...market will come back in time. Just hard to say when that time might be. I'll be looking for a reversal on the monthly charts to get in but will be careful with stops too

It won't come back until 11-5-24. LOL

True...lol. Actually they will pull it back up and drop gas prices a few months before the election then brag about how much they helped everyone. Did the same thing with jobs. Elmer Fudd could have had great job improvement numbers yet Biden is trying to act like a miracle worker for getting people working

J3ff

Actually ran out of $ in my account today. Couldn't get anything more transferred in quickly. Sure hope that wasn't a stupid move! 

Dream_Inn

@J3ff Not a stupid move if you are in it for at least a few years.  I only wish I had kept more to put in now.  I added a lot in January thru March on the good dips then, but it's lower now.  I can definitely hold off for 5 years, so I would certainly hope it will be higher then.

boatman37

There is a thing called Broadening Formations that look like a megaphone. Price will range in between that until it does a 'price discovery'. My lower broadening formation lines on the weekly charts on QQQ and SPY went right through 300 and 400 this week respectively. At this point I'd be looking for a reversal signal on a lower timeframe but with everything going on I'll be cautious to stop out of it fails. I knew we would get a bounce at these levels. Just need to see if we can sustain it. News always trumps charts and with all of the news out there right now nothing can be trusted.

boatman37

The white lines are my broadening formations

QQQ Weekly

SPY weekly

MarkB

Markets look bad ... like I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a massive dump to take out leveraged longs.

J3ff

Im just trying to get what little I have ready for the bottom.. will be a hail mary play!!

randy56

What did we lose 25% - 50% or more. Now we have to wait long time for recovery. I do not want to even look at it. I'm out of powder. For SM at this time.  

Dream_Inn

Randy, I'm with you man!  I had been putting any dry powder I had in the dips the last few months.  All total I'm down a total, from my initial market investments 1.5 years ago 11%.  Now, from my high in December, about 18%. But, over the last 1-2 years I have been dumping all but emergency funds in.  Oh well, it will go back up at some point. Just hard to look at.

Now, retirement funds, I am not gonna watch.  

YYZRC

Are you guys in a lot of tech? I’m down 4% YTD but I’m mostly in banks and utilities. 

Dream_Inn

YYZRC said:

Are you guys in a lot of tech? I’m down 4% YTD but I’m mostly in banks and utilities. 

I'm about half in tech.  What's bad is that I watched for years while it went up and ticked me off. Finally I get in and now pay for all those gains everyone else got. Wouldn't be so bad if I had gotten in 5 years ago, or even 3.  Enough of my whining.

Willhound

Our broker got us rebalanced a few months ago. Pulled a lot of our US stuff and went domestic and global/European. Up 24% in 2021, down 1.8% 2022. About 30% in cash/money market for now, waiting for the right opportunities. I haven't even looked at it until today after reading about all you guys trying to time the market. It's all good and I'm sleeping well at night. This crap in the Ukraine is causing some issues, we might sit tight a bit longer. Patience grasshopper.

randy56

In 2008 I was invested in the market, when it crashed, On paper I lost about 40 k. but I did not sell. 2.5 years later the market recovered. Back to even. 

Willhound

randy56 said:

In 2008 I was invested in the market, when it crashed, On paper I lost about 40 k. but I did not sell. 2.5 years later the market recovered. Back to even. 

That's the secret. A paper "loss" is not a loss unless you lock it in by panic selling. And the dips and rises have been quicker than in the past. Buy good quality and ride it out. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

J3ff

Dream_Inn said:

Randy, I'm with you man!  I had been putting any dry powder I had in the dips the last few months.  All total I'm down a total, from my initial market investments 1.5 years ago 11%.  Now, from my high in December, about 18%. But, over the last 1-2 years I have been dumping all but emergency funds in.  Oh well, it will go back up at some point. Just hard to look at.

Now, retirement funds, I am not gonna watch.  

I am back to Oct 2020 as far as retirement goes.. nuts. 60K gone from Jan 1st to today.. can't believe I pulled it out Dec15th and then put it back in, because "you can't time the market" - sure hope those people who said that are right!!

boatman37

I haven't looked at my 401 but haven't sold anything. I'm about 80% cash in my IRA right now and have been for awhile but still do a little day trading in it but overall I'm down in that account because that 20% I am in with is losing more value every day but they are all common stock so pretty confident they will bounce back at some point and with 80% of my funds available I'll be able to load up when I feel comfortable we have a reversal off the bottom. We are at a critical level right now so waiting to see what they want to do with it. This could be the point we see the reversal but again, with the economy as bad as it is and not looking any better I'm not sure we have seen the bottom yet. My smaller day trading acct is always 100% cash when the market closes.

randy56

Some company's are trading at 50% there earnings. This would be a buying opportunity.  

MarkB

I just bought litecoin ... nothing like waiting for the dip!

Dream_Inn

MarkB said:

I just bought litecoin ... nothing like waiting for the dip!

Wow, you've got some brass ones! LOL!  I moved a little, small amount, out of a floating rate advantage fund, just back into my MM.  It'll allow me a tad dry powder (I'm talking like 1-2% of my total, LOL!).  I hate not having more to put in there, knowing it will go back up.

J3ff

As soon as I can , I'm hopping into bit coin!!

boatman37

We aren't holding the levels I mentioned on QQQ or SPY. We haven't lost them yet but we haven't bounced either. I traded puts all day and made a little here and there

Dream_Inn

boatman37 said:

We aren't holding the levels I mentioned on QQQ or SPY. We haven't lost them yet but we haven't bounced either. I traded puts all day and made a little here and there

I agree with you on the general market, but there are a few things starting to really pop, bug time as busy.  Not saying they won't go down more yet, but should recover quicker.

MarkB

Dream_Inn said:

MarkB said:

I just bought litecoin ... nothing like waiting for the dip!

Wow, you've got some brass ones! LOL!  I moved a little, small amount, out of a floating rate advantage fund, just back into my MM.  It'll allow me a tad dry powder (I'm talking like 1-2% of my total, LOL!).  I hate not having more to put in there, knowing it will go back up.

When something like this drops 50% in 1 week ... you get in, period. If it goes down more, you put a bit more in.  Everyone is selling scared ... and they are over-selling some assets

J3ff

Well the $ transferred. Threw a couple k into bit coin... And then took the rest and averaged down on every other stock I own... Basically going to throw 5 to 10k in at this point and see what happens...  Just as Mark said... If it keeps going down I'll just keep throwing more in. At this point I don't need this cash. It's just sitting in savings doing nothing. 

Dream_Inn

So, I wet up 4% today which is significant!  I know there is a long while before things settle, but it made my weekend!